Weekend stockpiling and narrowing backwardation drive a slight rebound in Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM SHFE Copper Spot]

SMM, September 4:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at premiums of 200-380 yuan/mt, with an average of 290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a bottom-out pattern after a gap-up open. In early trading, prices quickly climbed above 109,100 yuan/mt, then consolidated higher, reaching an intraday high near 109,220 yuan/mt. Prices then retreated from highs, dipping to around 108,950 yuan/mt, before gradually recovering. Near midday, prices rebounded to 109,170 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between adjacent months stood at 420-500 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract was between a loss of 480 yuan/mt and a loss of 360 yuan/mt.

During the day, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.36, up 0.1 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 3.43, up 0.44 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper brands such as Tiefeng, Yuguang, and Dajiang HS at premiums of 200 yuan/mt, while Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, and Dajiang PC were quoted at premiums of 240 yuan/mt, with most deals concluded at premiums of 200 yuan/mt. In the Changzhou area, some cargoes were quoted at premiums of 180 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, available supply in Shanghai remained tight, prompting suppliers to raise their quotes. Standard-quality copper brands such as Tiefeng saw quotes gradually raised from premiums of 200 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt for concluded deals. Non-registered copper brands such as Mabende, Panda, and TCC were mostly traded at premiums of 80-110 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, purchasing sentiment in Shanghai improved notably during the day. Some downstream buyers and traders showed stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend, driving an improvement in market transactions compared with earlier periods. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between adjacent months narrowed from earlier levels, easing the pressure on suppliers to roll positions and reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. After some cargoes near premiums of 200 yuan/mt were traded in early trading, available supply in the Shanghai market tightened further, prompting suppliers to raise quotes and lending support to spot premiums. However, absolute SHFE copper prices remain high, and downstream purchases are still driven mainly by rigid demand and restocking on dips, with limited willingness to chase high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the release of weekend stockpiling demand, the narrowing backwardation structure, and tight available supply, spot copper prices against the SHFE 2609 contract are expected to remain at premiums next week, with the overall center likely to edge up further, though upside room will remain constrained by high copper prices and downstream acceptance.