[SMM Energy Storage Battery Cell Market Weekly Review 9.3] Tight copper foil supply constrains September production schedules, energy storage battery cell prices remain firm

This week, the energy storage battery cell market remained generally stable, with shipments steadily increasing alongside production and prices holding firm. Among these, the supply-demand relationship for 314Ah battery cells remained tight. Although some raw material prices pulled back, battery cell prices have not yet shown significant softening. Energy storage battery cell shipments are expected to continue growing steadily in September, with prices likely to maintain a stable-to-rising trend.

On the production schedule side, tight copper foil supply has become a key factor constraining lithium battery production growth. Since processing fees for high-end electronic copper foil are significantly higher than those for lithium battery copper foil, some leading copper foil enterprises are tilting new capacity toward high-value-added products, resulting in relatively limited actual supply of lithium battery copper foil. Affected by the phased shortage, some battery cell manufacturers saw their September production schedule growth slow down, with a few enterprises posting flat MoM production schedules, though no declines have emerged yet. Currently, major battery cell enterprises are actively renegotiating copper foil supply agreements and securing future production by locking in capacity at small and mid-sized copper foil plants. Copper foil is expected to become one of the tightest-supplied materials in the lithium battery industry chain this year.

In terms of production, China's energy storage battery cell output in August was approximately 90.76 GWh, up 5.6% MoM, while global output was approximately 96.86 GWh, up 7.09% MoM. September domestic output is expected to be approximately 94.47 GWh, up 4.09% MoM, with global output at approximately 100.97 GWh, up 4.25% MoM. The slowdown in September output growth is mainly related to copper foil supply and the pace of capacity expansion at various enterprises, rather than weakening end-use demand. From a monthly pace perspective, industry output grew significantly in August, with growth slowing in September, and is expected to accelerate again starting in October.

In addition, the expansion and capacity ramp-up progress for large-capacity battery cells has been generally slower than market expectations. Large battery cells still face certain constraints in production costs, product yield rates, and process technology, making it difficult for new capacity to quickly form effective supply. Overall, the short-term supply-demand balance for energy storage battery cells is expected to remain tight, with raw material supply and large-cell capacity ramp-up becoming key factors influencing subsequent production schedules and price trends.

SMM New Energy Research Department

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Yang Le 021-51595898

Li Yisha 021-51666730

Huang Congcong 021-51595860