[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (September 4 - September 10), platinum and palladium prices diverged, with platinum closing sharply higher for the week while palladium was basically flat.
Last Friday evening, US August non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding market expectations of 56,000, and June-July data were revised up by a combined 55,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. The non-farm payrolls data reversed rate cut expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike rebounding to around 60%. The US dollar and Treasury yields shot up, overseas precious metals plunged across the board, and on Monday the domestic market followed the overseas market lower, consolidating on a subdued note.
Mid-week, US-Iran tensions escalated again, with crude oil surging to near $100/bbl. Higher crude oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, and renewed inflation concerns combined with the September rate hike probability rising to 60% sent overseas palladium tumbling overnight. Domestic PD2610 opened lower with a gap, while platinum bucked the trend and rose on capital inflows, with the platinum-palladium price spread widening rapidly during the week. Late in the week, palladium rebounded slightly after oversold conditions, while the most-traded platinum contract shot up further to its weekly high.
The most-traded GFEX platinum contract hit a weekly high of 460.3 yuan/g and a low of 439.45 yuan/g, closing at 455.65 yuan/g on September 10, up about 4.59% WoW from last week's close of 435.65 yuan/g. The most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 329.3 yuan/g and a low of 312.65 yuan/g, closing at 316.75 yuan/g on September 10, down about 0.03% WoW from last week's close of 316.85 yuan/g.
In the spot market, mainstream domestic platinum spot quotations were quoted at premiums of -3 to -2 yuan/g against the most-traded contract, while mainstream palladium spot quotations were quoted at premiums of -2.5 to -1.5 yuan/g against the most-traded contract. End-user purchasing sentiment tracked absolute price fluctuations, with an overall wait-and-see stance. Purchase willingness showed no notable improvement, stockpiling remained cautious, and buying favored the low end of mainstream quotations. Downstream auto catalyst and industrial consumption remained subdued, with end-users mainly purchasing as needed, leaving overall spot market trading sluggish.
Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are in a repricing range for rate hike expectations following the blowout non-farm payrolls data, with near-term direction highly anchored to the FOMC meeting and the US August CPI data released on the evening of September 10. On the bullish side, COMEX registered platinum inventory is at an extremely low historical percentile; platinum ETFs and investment funds continue to see inflows, fund net longs stay high, and platinum significantly outperformed palladium this week. On the bearish side, after August non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, the September rate hike probability rose to 60%, Treasury yields stay high, and rate-side pressure is notable. Palladium fundamentals are weak, with global auto catalyst demand persistently pressured by EV substitution, and total COMEX palladium inventory remains near one-year highs, leaving the ample supply picture unchanged. The escalation of Middle East conflicts has pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, which in turn reinforces the rate hike narrative and creates a negative feedback loop for precious metals. Going forward, key focus should be on the US August CPI data on September 10 and the FOMC meeting decision on September 15-16, with the high-volatility environment expected to persist in the near term.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories maintained a divergent pattern this week. Platinum inventory continued its prior destocking trend, with registered inventory at around 190,000 oz as of early September, an extremely low level at the 10th percentile historically. Deliverable buffers are thin, and the tight supply picture remains unchanged. Total inventory was around 390,000 oz, with the registered share at about 48%-49%. Palladium inventory continued to consolidate at highs, with registered inventory at about 198,000 oz and total inventory at about 250,000 oz, with the registered share near 80%. US warehouse buffer inventory remains near one-year highs, and the ample supply picture is unchanged.
On imports, according to customs data, July 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.35 mt, down 21.74% MoM and up 23.52% YoY. Imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 2.99 mt, down 37.05% MoM and down 2.61% YoY. Although platinum imports pulled back MoM, they still maintained YoY growth, with January-July cumulative imports at about 56.53 mt, up about 16.5% YoY, and the import trend significantly higher than the same period in 2023-2025. Palladium imports turned negative YoY in July, the first YoY decline in a single month since 2026, reflecting cooling importer restocking willingness amid weak domestic auto catalyst and industrial demand. January-July cumulative imports were about 29.96 mt, still up about 85% YoY. Overall, domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample, and combined with export restriction policies, the domestic surplus is difficult to absorb through exports.
On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels. The one-month platinum lease rate was below 2%, while the one-month palladium lease rate hovered near 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak lending demand, with the overall ample supply picture unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices diverged notably: chloroplatinic acid strengthened while palladium chloride mainly consolidated. Chloroplatinic acid rose by a cumulative 5.5 yuan/g during the week, up 6 yuan/g from last Friday. It moved sideways in the first three days of the week, then jumped 4.5 yuan/g on Thursday, hitting a new high since late August. Palladium chloride fell by a cumulative 3 yuan/g during the week, down 4.5 yuan/g from last Friday. It dipped to 199.5 yuan/g on Wednesday, then recovered slightly on Thursday but remained below the level at the start of the week.
Downstream compound spot trading was relatively sluggish, with limited follow-through at high prices, constraining spot volumes for both products. Affected by the unclear direction of upstream raw material prices, downstream enterprises remained cautious in restocking, mainly staying on the sidelines.
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