The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 412,960, down 2.47%. Probability of a September rate hike rose to 66.9% [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

[Futures]

• LME 3M tin closed at $54,225/mt on 9/2 (-275 / -0.5%), extending Tuesday's decline and holding in the doldrums above $54,000 during the week; geopolitical and macro headwinds on LME remained unresolved.
• The most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2610 opened at 421,500 in the daytime session on 9/2 and closed at 412,960 (-10,440 / -2.47%), hitting a high of 421,910 and a low of 410,370 before stabilizing slightly into the close; the most-traded contract saw volume of 146,000 lots, turnover of 15.87 billion yuan, and open interest of 42,800 lots (up 877 day on day).
• Night session on 9/2 into early morning 9/3 (closing at 01:00 on 9/3): SHFE tin closed at 414,070 (-1,750 / -0.42%), stabilizing modestly versus the daytime session, with night session volume of 38,300 lots.

[Spot]

• SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 413,000-415,000 yuan/mt on 9/2, averaging 414,000 (-11,000 / -2.59%);
• premium structure: minor brands at parity to a premium of 300 against the October contract; Yun-brand at a premium of 300-600 against the October contract; Yunnan Tin at a premium of 600-1,000 against the October contract. High-grade Yunnan Tin maintained deep premiums, with smelter brand premiums still present.
• Spot market shipments increased on 9/2, with downstream buyers showing a clear "buy on dips, not on rallies" pattern — as prices pulled back to around 410,000, downstream users began small-batch just-in-time procurement, with some traders shipping roughly one truckload in the morning.

[Inventory]

• LME tin inventory was reported at 5,120 mt on 8/26 (-35 mt), with cancelled warrants at 615 mt (cancellation ratio 12.0%); the 9/2 inventory figure was not captured, so the 8/26 low-level reference is carried forward.
• SHFE tin inventory was reported at 6,381 mt on 8/28 (+363 mt), with futures inventory rebounding marginally;

[Macro]

• Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole on 8/28 continued to resonate, reiterating the "firm and fixed" 2% PCE inflation target and stating that "there is still work to do until inflation returns to target"; Governor Barr also struck a hawkish tone on 9/1-9/2.
• CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike rising to 66.9% (around 60% the previous day), as the market repriced the 9/15-16 FOMC meeting; the US August CPI data on 9/11 is the next key data point to watch.
• The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to a new year-to-date high at end-August, with term premium widening; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 2.14% on 9/2, weighing on tin prices via the tech chain.
• Oil prices: WTI briefly broke above $90/barrel on 9/2 (up nearly 6% intraday, mainly on the first US strike on Iran in a month and escalating US-Iran conflict), settling at $91.01/barrel at 02:33 on 9/3 (+0.88%); room for geopolitical premium to retrace is limited.

[Fundamentals]

• Mine supply: ① Myanmar's Wa State remains in the late rainy season, with mining and overland logistics still constrained; in July, China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar (equivalent to 1,077 mt of tin metal, -27% MoM), and average monthly supply to China in H2 is expected to be only 1,300 mt Sn per month. ② Indonesia's Timah has completed its annual maintenance, and China's tin ingot imports from Indonesia rose to 2,483 mt in August (Bloomberg estimate); Indonesia's total exports in August were 4,564 mt, recovering to near the expected range; however, the rebuilding of a compliant supply system for small-scale mining remains slow, and sustainability in H2 remains to be seen. ③ On September 1, DRC reported 6,186 confirmed cases of the Ebola Bundibugyo strain and 3,007 deaths (case fatality rate 48.6%), raising operational risks in the region. ④ Xingye Silver&Tin (000426.SZ) subsidiary Yinman Mining's beneficiation plant resumed production on September 3, while the timing for resuming work at the mining area is yet to be determined; Peru's Minsur made no new announcements in early September.
• Smelting side: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stand at 18,000 yuan/mt, and Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan 60% tin concentrates at 14,000 yuan/mt, recovering from 12,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year; in July, China's refined tin production was 15,290 mt (-4.08% YoY), with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces at 64.38%; in July, net exports of refined tin were 524 mt (imports 2,269 / exports 1,745), Indonesian tolling material was 1,763.7 mt, and the import profit margin was +2,310.83 yuan/mt.
• Demand side: In July, the operating rate of solder enterprises was 72.8% (relatively low compared with the same period in the past five years), with ordinary consumer electronics and traditional solder dominated by small rigid-demand orders; high-end solder related to AI servers and advanced packaging maintained resilience — SMM expects global tin use in AI computing centers to grow from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%), with China's server tin consumption growing at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030.

[Spot Market]

• September 2 review: SHFE tin fell 2.47% in the daytime session, and spot prices followed with a 2.59% decline; downstream buyers showed a clear "buying on dips rather than rallies" pattern — as prices pulled back to around 410,000, downstream inquiries turned active, with small rigid-demand restocking; high-premium Yunnan tin (600-1,000) reflects that brand premiums at the smelting end still exist.