Back price spread between futures contracts widens, suppliers cut prices continuously to boost transactions [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Sep 2, 2026 13:22

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the absolute price of SHFE copper pulled back from the previous trading day, which helped release some downstream dip-buying demand, and market transactions improved slightly from the earlier period. However, the backwardation spread between contract months widened again to above 550 yuan/mt, pushing up suppliers' position-rolling costs and significantly strengthening their willingness to sell spot cargoes. Intraday quotes for standard-quality copper were lowered repeatedly to facilitate transactions, exerting strong pressure on spot premiums. Meanwhile, although downstream users made some just-in-time procurement, their acceptance of spot premiums, which remain at elevated levels, was limited. Purchases were concentrated more on lower-priced cargoes, with little willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, with the widening backwardation spread, active selling by suppliers, and downstream buyers pushing for lower prices, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to face slight downward pressure tomorrow. However, with demand improving marginally after the pullback in copper prices and transactions for some lower-priced cargoes proceeding relatively smoothly, the room for further declines in premiums is expected to be relatively limited.

SMM News, September 2:

Today, SMM quoted #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2609 contract at 300–450 yuan/mt, with the average at 375 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract drifted lower before stabilizing at low levels. After the morning open, prices briefly consolidated in the 108,850–108,950 yuan/mt range, then weakened quickly, with an intraday low near 108,150 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded slightly and moved sideways in a narrow range of 108,350–108,500 yuan/mt, closing near 108,440 yuan/mt toward midday. The Back price spread between futures contracts ranged from 550 yuan/mt to 670 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 790 yuan/mt to a loss of 690 yuan/mt.

Intraday, in Shanghai, the sales sentiment for copper cathode was 3.41, up 0.1 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 3.06, down 0.09 MoM; historical data can be accessed in the database. Early in the morning session, suppliers quoted spot premiums for standard-quality copper at 420–450 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered offers: Lufang, JCC, Poland small plates, etc. were quoted at a premium of 420 yuan/mt; Dajiang PC, Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, etc. at 350–360 yuan/mt; non-registered KAMBOVE, TCC, etc. at 260–280 yuan/mt; and high-quality copper Jintun large plates at 480 yuan/mt. In the second time window, suppliers further lowered offers: Dajiang PC, Zhongjin, Tiefeng, etc. traded at 300–320 yuan/mt; non-registered copper traded at 220–260 yuan/mt; and high-quality copper Guixi and Jintun large plates traded at 420–480 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, intraday SHFE copper prices pulled back somewhat from the previous trading day, prompting the release of some downstream buy-the-dip demand, and market transactions improved slightly from earlier levels. However, the Back price spread between futures contracts widened again to above 550 yuan/mt, raising suppliers’ rollover costs. As a result, willingness to sell strengthened markedly, and intraday quotes for standard-quality copper were lowered repeatedly to facilitate deals, exerting strong downward pressure on spot premiums. Meanwhile, although downstream buyers made some just-in-time procurement, their acceptance of the still-elevated spot premiums remained limited, with purchases more concentrated in lower-priced cargoes and little willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the widening Back spread, active selling by suppliers, and downstream push for lower prices, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to edge down tomorrow. However, as copper prices pull back, demand is expected to improve at the margin, and some lower-priced cargoes traded relatively smoothly, so the room for further cuts in premiums is expected to be relatively limited.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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