Futures
LME: Three-month LME tin closed at $54,500/mt on September 1, edging up 0.01%, underperforming on a day of divergence in London base metals where "aluminum, zinc, and lead were strong while copper, nickel, and tin were weak." LME tin inventory stood at 5,550 mt, down 40 mt from the earlier high of 5,590 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at around 12%—the overseas "squeeze backdrop" of low inventory plus high cancellations remains intact.
China (September 1 daytime session → early morning night session on September 2): The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed overnight at 416,570 yuan/mt, down 6,830 yuan or 1.61%. It opened today at 421,500, with the previous settlement at 423,400, a high of 421,910, and a low of 415,900. Trading volume reached 77,700 lots—fully erasing the 1.10% bullish engulfing gain from the September 1 morning session, with the 420,000 round-number level "won and then lost." The most-traded 2610 contract was also quoted near 416,570 yuan/mt, with 415,900 (the night session low) serving as the first short-term support and 421,500 (the night session open) as the first resistance.
Inventory:
LME tin inventory stood at 5,550 mt, down 40 mt from the August 27 high of 5,590 mt, with the cancellation ratio at around 12%—overseas hard low inventory persists;
SHFE tin warrants totaled 5,479 mt, up 139 mt MoM—domestic warrants rebounded slightly;
Macro: Warsh's lingering impact plus Barr's hawkish follow-up, September rate hike probability surged from 35% to 66%, US-Iran conflict escalation fueled inflation concerns
(1) Fed Governor Barr followed up with hawkish remarks on September 1, lifting the September rate hike probability to 66%. Fed Governor Michael Barr stated explicitly at the Washington banking forum: "If inflation does not appear to be easing sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively and raise rates"—echoing Warsh's Jackson Hole warning that "inflation has not improved materially, otherwise we still have work to do." CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September surged from around 35% before Warsh's speech to around 66%, briefly touching 68% intraday on September 1 after Barr's remarks.
(2) US Treasury yields hit new highs, global bonds face a "perfect storm." The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.798%, the highest since January 2025; the 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.369%, marking the highest closing level in 19 months. "Rising energy prices have triggered inflation panic, and global bonds are facing a perfect storm"—Metzler Bank analyst Borst characterized the situation.
(3) US-Iran conflict escalated, crude oil held firmly above $90. This week, the US military struck Iran for the first time in a month, and Iran retaliated immediately. Brent crude rose 2.4% to $92.65 per barrel. Middle East tensions pushed up inflation expectations, resonating with Warsh's argument that "inflation has still not improved materially." Global sovereign bond yields broadly rose, and the macro environment remained a headwind.
(4) Two data gates before the September FOMC: ① US August nonfarm payrolls on September 4; ② US August CPI on September 11 — unless core CPI falls to about 0.1% MoM, the case for the FOMC to hold rates steady may be insufficient. CNBC traders believe that "combined with the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, the probability of a September rate hike has risen further."
(5) The "credibility gamble" of Warsh's speech. Penguin Analytics noted: Warsh built credibility with the toughest rhetoric, using that credibility to buy time to observe the data; short-end US Treasury yields rose sharply (reflecting heightened expectations of near-term rate hikes), while the long-end 30-year yield pulled back (indicating the market has not raised the risk of long-term inflation spiraling out of control) — "a clear but restrained hawkish stance is better than an ambiguous dovish one." The upcoming nonfarm payrolls and CPI data will determine whether this "credibility porcelain" remains intact or shatters again.
Fundamentals: Mine-side hard constraints remain unrelaxed + smelting operating rates stable, demand off-season high-price negative feedback continues
(1) The tail end of the rainy season in Wa State, Myanmar + Indonesia's export controls, mine-side hard constraints remain unrelaxed: ① Wa State, Myanmar is still in the tail end of the rainy season, with mining and logistics continuing to be restricted, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to increase significantly; ② Indonesia's refined tin export controls continue to be implemented, with low full-year quotas and ongoing uncertainty over the pace of windfall tax policy, and Timah's annual maintenance concluded, with exports possibly resuming in September; ③ July tin ore imports were 16,958 mt, with Myanmar-sourced imports down 28.5% MoM, and the mine-side recovery remains slower than the market had previously expected; ④ Yinman Mining's mining/processing and tailings operations are fully halted, with the shutdown duration of the 1.65 million mt/year core tin-silver mine undetermined, "Xingye Silver&Tin's shutdown timeline is uncertain, and the mine side remains tight."
(2) Smelting-side operating rates stable but profits under pressure: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs are about 17,500 yuan/mt, and 60% tin concentrate TCs are about 14,000 yuan/mt; July domestic refined tin production was about 15,290 mt, with solder enterprise operating rates at about 72.8%; smelting profits from externally purchased ore are under pressure, secondary tin growth is limited by scrap supply constraints, and refined tin import profits are about 2,858 yuan/mt (down about 102 yuan/mt from the previous value), with imports still having some economic viability but overseas visible inventory being low, constraining the scale of replenishment by supply availability.
(3) Demand-side "off-season + high prices" dual pressure continues: ① Domestic tin ingot social inventory rose for five consecutive weeks to 9,541 mt, "insufficient demand absorption at high prices became an important fundamental backdrop for the night session pullback"; ② solder enterprise operating rates at 72.8%, with traditional consumer electronics, automobiles, and home appliances still in the off-season; ③ the AI demand narrative has recovered somewhat — domestic AI applications began to surge driven by long-form dramas, AI monetization scenarios broadened, and "the demand narrative suppressed by high interest rates (concerns over slowing capex growth) has recovered somewhat"; ④ Jinyuan Futures characterized it as "consumer weakness has not eased, and fundamentals are unlikely to provide strong upward momentum."
Spot market
Sep 1 spot: SMM #1 tin was at 423,100–426,100 yuan/mt. Futures rose 1.10% in the daytime session, then gave back gains with a 1.61% drop in the night session. Spot premiums held steady, and trading was moderate. Premiums: minor brands were on par with the October contract to a premium of 300 yuan/mt; Yunzi brands were at premiums of 300–600 yuan/mt over the October contract; Yunnan Tin was at premiums of 600–1,000 yuan/mt over the October contract. In the high-price environment, downstream purchases remained dominated by small-lot just-in-time procurement. Solder and end-user enterprises showed limited acceptance of high prices, and spot trading failed to expand accordingly.
Trading: Demand is currently in a recovery phase, and trading activity is influenced by price fluctuations. Many downstream users maintained just-in-time procurement. In the high-price environment, downstream purchases remained dominated by small-lot just-in-time procurement. Mainstream spot quotations were at 423,000–426,000 yuan/mt, with virtually no trading above 430,000 yuan/mt. The range of 415,000–420,000 yuan/mt was where downstream users were willing to fix prices later.
![Geopolitical conflicts combined with hawkish signals exerted pressure, SHFE tin came under pressure in the night session, and it is expected to maintain wild swings today [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/YfCBC20251217171753.jpg)
