High copper prices combined with imported arrivals cause Shanghai spot copper premiums to pull back sharply [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Sep 1, 2026 13:29

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper absolute prices are expected to stay high during the day. The backwardation spread between contract months has narrowed notably from the previous period, weakening the basis for suppliers to hold prices firm. Some suppliers have proactively lowered their quotes to facilitate transactions, driving spot premiums down rapidly. Meanwhile, some imported cargoes have been arriving at ports recently, increasing the availability of spot copper in the Shanghai market and marginally easing the previously tight supply situation. On the demand side, persistently high copper prices continue to suppress downstream purchase willingness. Buying sentiment pulled back notably during the day, with downstream users still purchasing mainly on a need-to basis and showing limited acceptance of high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the narrowing backwardation spread, increased arrivals of imported copper, and stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, though the overall center may continue to edge lower.

SMM, August 31:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at premiums of 400-590 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 495 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract showed an overall pattern of retreat after rapid rise followed by consolidation. After the opening, prices rose quickly, reaching an intraday high of around 110,280 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure at highs, briefly dipping to around 109,790 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded slightly and consolidated mainly around 109,900 yuan/mt. Near midday, prices settled around 109,880 yuan/mt. The Back month spread ranged from 390 yuan/mt to 470 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract was between a loss of 1,240 yuan/mt and a loss of 1,160 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.33, up 0.10 MoM, while purchase sentiment was 3.15, down 0.35 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted Lufang at a premium of 550 yuan/mt, and Tiefeng, Zijin, Yuguang, etc. at premiums of 520-530 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered quotes significantly, with Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, Zijin, Xikuang, etc. quoting premiums of 420-480 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper brands such as MABENDE, TCC, FIMPIMPA, PANDA quoted at premiums of 300-320 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers further lowered quotes, with Tiefeng, Zijin, Zhongtiaoshan, etc. quoting premiums of 400 yuan/mt. High-quality copper Guixi traded at a premium of 600 yuan/mt, and Jintun large plates were quoted at a premium of 600 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper absolute prices stayed high intraday, and the Back month spread narrowed notably from earlier levels. The basis for suppliers to hold prices firm weakened, and some suppliers proactively lowered quotes to facilitate transactions, driving spot premiums down rapidly. Meanwhile, some imported cargoes have been arriving at ports recently, increasing the availability of spot copper in the Shanghai market compared with earlier, marginally easing the tight supply situation. On the demand side, high copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchase willingness. Intraday purchase sentiment pulled back notably, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing on a need-to basis and showing limited acceptance of high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the combined effects of the narrowing Back spread, increased imported arrivals, and stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot copper prices against the SHFE 2609 contract are expected to remain at premiums tomorrow, but the overall center may continue to edge lower.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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