Macro pressure coexists with supply support, the most-traded SHFE tin contract swings wildly back above 420,000 yuan [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin midday review for Sep 1, 2026

1. Prices

Today, SMM 1# tin spot was quoted at 423,100-426,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 424,600 yuan/mt, up 7,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounded today, reported at 423,790 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 4,790 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's settlement price (419,000 yuan/mt), a gain of about 1.1%. Futures moved back above the 420,000 yuan/mt level.

On the LME, trading resumed today after the UK Summer Bank Holiday. LME 3M tin drifted higher, reported at $55,400/mt, up $905/mt from the previous trading day, a gain of 1.66%.

2. Spot market

Overall spot trading was mediocre today. As futures rebounded, downstream buying was mainly small orders for immediate needs, with sentiment weakening further from yesterday's buying interest when prices fell. Most downstream users had already restocked in advance last week, and current raw material inventory is sufficient to cover near-term production, limiting willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. End-use demand has yet to show substantive signs of recovery for the traditional September peak season, and downstream users overall maintained a pace of purchasing as needed and staying on the sidelines.

3. Outlook

In the short term, tin prices remain in a wide stalemate between macro pressure and fundamental support. Tightening expectations outside China remain a medium-term drag on the nonferrous sector. The probability of a US Fed rate hike in September has risen above 60%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved higher. The declines on Friday and yesterday had partially priced in hawkish Fed expectations. Today's rebound in futures was mainly due to no new negative news and marginal positive factors in China: the August manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.8%, large enterprises returned to expansion territory, and policies such as existing home sales reform and extended mortgage terms were implemented, providing some boost to risk appetite for domestic industrial products.

Currently, tin prices are capped by US Fed tightening expectations and weak end-use demand, limiting the upside. On the downside, support comes from the supply side, with small production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar, and refined tin shipments from Indonesia falling short of expectations, as well as restocking demand near 400,000-410,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate with wild swings in the 415,000-428,000 yuan/mt range in the short term.