SMM News on August 31, 2026:
According to SMM statistics, China's secondary refined lead production in August 2026 was 165,500 mt, down 2.33% MoM from July (169,400 mt), remaining in the low range for the year for two consecutive months, but still exceeding the lower bound of the previously expected 140,000–160,000 mt. Monthly production followed a "low in the first half, stable in the second half" pace: In the first and middle ten days, smelters in North China, east China and other regions maintained low operating rates due to tight scrap battery raw material supply and sustained losses; in late August, lead prices rose, and some idled smelters resumed production and ramped up output, leading to marginal supply improvement.
Profit and price side, the average price of SMM #1 lead ingot in August rose from 15,250 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month to 16,150 yuan/mt at month-end, an increase of nearly 6%; scrap battery prices were weak, with cost side concessions, significantly narrowing smelters' loss margins: As of August 31, the comprehensive theoretical profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -109 yuan/mt, while that of small and medium-sized enterprises was -294 yuan/mt, and some enterprises with by-product gains from antimony, tin and others had achieved slight profits. Inventory side, finished product inventories of secondary lead in four regions dropped to approximately 17,300 mt at month-end, down about 45% MoM, with low inventories providing flexibility for production resumptions.
Looking ahead to September, lead prices are expected to fluctuate at highs, combined with downstream battery enterprises' stockpiling and improved orders before the dual holidays; some battery plants have notified suppliers to increase pickup volume, and smelters' production enthusiasm is high. SMM expects September's secondary refined lead production to increase by 44,400 mt MoM to 209,800 mt. Risk factors include regional tightness in scrap battery supply that may restrict production ramp-ups, as well as the suppression of domestic refined lead transactions by imported refined lead inflows; the realization pace of production ramp-ups still needs to be monitored.
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