SMM August 31 News:
According to SMM statistics, total overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2026 fell approximately 5.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month. The modest decline in August was mainly attributed to temporary production cuts at Brazil's Alunorte due to natural gas supply disruptions, compounded by logistics disruptions and reduced operating rates at Guinea's Friguia following a train derailment. Although the resumption of production at Al Taweelah in the Middle East provided some offset, overall output still fell short of July levels. Region-by-region breakdown:
Brazil, Alunorte alumina refinery experienced a cut-then-recovery process in August. The facility temporarily reduced output as an emergency response after gas supplier CELBA notified an interruption in natural gas supply, with estimated lost production of 100,000-120,000 tonnes of alumina during the outage. Following approval from Brazil's ANP to become an autonomous natural gas importer, Alunorte reached a temporary agreement with CELBA on terminal access and promptly began ramping up production, currently returning to full operating rates. The outage and above-contract natural gas procurement are expected to impact third-quarter financial results by US$75 million to US$100 million, while long-term solutions are still being advanced.
Africa/Guinea, the Friguia refinery posted a year-on-year increase of 38 kt in first-half production and was expected to continue its growth trajectory in August. However, a train operated by RUSAL carrying alumina derailed near Kagbelen in Guinea's Dubréka province in late August, blocking finished product transport and feedstock supply (fuel, caustic soda, etc.), with rail traffic suspended and four people injured. The derailment has halted exports, and a senior refinery official said production continues but at reduced rates, capping the month's incremental output. The overall drag on August production was limited, but with rail repairs expected to take time, the impact in September could be slightly larger than in August.
Middle East, EGA's semi-annual results disclosed the restart progress at the Al Taweelah aluminum smelter, which was shut down following an attack on March 28. 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolytic cells have been restarted, with production expected to return to pre-incident levels by Q1 2027. Restart capex is estimated at approximately US$400 million, with most spending expected in 2026 and some in 2027. The new recovery plant is currently running at 10% capacity, targeting full capacity by the end of Q4 2026. The Al Taweelah alumina refinery restart is progressing steadily but contributed limited incremental supply in August.
Outlook for September, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to continue recovering, with the overall market turning relatively loose. Brazil's Alunorte has returned to full operations and will contribute a full month's output in September, while the Middle East's Al Taweelah restart continues to advance. However, disruptive factors have not been fully resolved: Guinea's rail repairs will take time, and Friguia shipments and production will remain under pressure in September; Middle East geopolitical risks persist, and the operating status of Bahrain and Qatar aluminum smelters remains to be seen. Overall, September output is expected to be higher than August, with the market maintaining expectations of loose supply.
