SMM, August 31 — According to SMM statistics, China's primary aluminum production in August 2026 (31 days) rose 2.2% year-on-year and was flat month-on-month.
Domestic downstream demand recovered month-on-month in August, with consumption of some fabricated products holding up reasonably well. In addition, some sectors brought forward peak-season orders for pre-stocking, which lifted willingness to procure molten aluminum and pushed up the share of molten aluminum output nationwide. The molten aluminum share rose 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to 78.8%, slightly above expectations at the start of the month. The core increase came from firm aluminum billet processing premiums in the first half of the month, with production pacing modestly ahead of expectations; meanwhile, procurement demand for molten aluminum from some alloy segments also beat forecasts.
Based on SMM's molten aluminum ratio estimates, China's primary aluminum cast ingot volume in August fell 12.9% year-on-year and 2.3% month-on-month.
Capacity changes: As of end-August, SMM statistics put China's built primary aluminum capacity at approximately 46.2087 million tonnes, unchanged month-on-month.
Output forecast: Entering September 2026, the traditional peak downstream season arrives, and industry sentiment is expected to see a substantive improvement, with demand for most downstream products projected to rise. Overall, the molten aluminum ratio is expected to increase 0.7 percentage points to 79.5%.
[Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.]
