Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Aug 31)

With no futures guidance today, spot prices mostly remained stable. In terms of supply, new maintenance for hot rolling was limited, and overall production continued to increase. Rolling line maintenance next week is expected to decline WoW, leaving hot coil supply pressure relatively loose. On the demand side, with no futures trading today, the spot market was relatively stable, with no significant purchasing demand released, and pre-holiday restocking remained sluggish. From the raw material side, pre-holiday restocking is nearing its end, and short-term hot metal rigid demand remains resilient. The probability of raw material prices breaking downward before the holiday is relatively small, but there may be negative feedback risks after the holiday. Looking ahead, after the September 17 thermal coal supply guarantee news was released, the specific implementation still needs to be observed after November. Next week's market focus will be on the release of pre-holiday restocking demand both domestically and internationally. In summary, the most-traded hot coil contract may have some room for a rebound next week.

Domestic ore prices diverged this week; iron ore concentrate prices in Hebei fell by 10-20 yuan/mt, while prices in Liaoning remained relatively stable. Overall, iron ore concentrate resources were relatively tight, providing some support to local prices. On the demand side, steel mills saw deepening losses and mainly purchased iron ore concentrates as needed, with a relatively strong desire to bargain down prices.

In August 2026, total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh again, reaching 1,033.2 billion kWh, up 1.7% YoY. The electricity load hit a record high of 1.56 billion kW, 49.69 million kW higher than the previous year's peak load, with 7 days exceeding the previous year's peak load. By sector, primary industry electricity consumption was 16.9 billion kWh, up 2.7% YoY. Secondary industry electricity consumption was 612.4 billion kWh, up 2.4% YoY, of which industrial electricity consumption was 606.5 billion kWh, up 2.7% YoY. Electricity consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth momentum, reaching 122.2 billion kWh, up 7.2% YoY.