Futures
LME: LME three-month tin on Aug 28 closed at an official price of $55,223/mt, down $305 or 0.55%, with an intraday high of $55,885/mt and a low of $55,195/mt; on a broadly lower day for London base metals, tin's decline was in the middle (zinc -1.09%, nickel -1.23%, tin -0.55%, copper -0.70%, aluminum -0.71%). LME tin inventory was 5,590 mt (+470 mt on Aug 27, then flat on Aug 28), with cancelled warrants at 690 mt and a cancellation ratio of 12.34%—the inventory rebound after consecutive destocking has been digested by the market; at 5,590 mt, it remains at an absolute historical low, and the "squeeze backdrop" of low inventory plus medium-to-high cancellations remains intact, though its urgency has eased at the margin.
China): the most-traded 2610 contract closed the night session at 417,760 yuan/mt, down 4,240 yuan or 1.00%; it opened at 423,850, hit a high of 424,980 and a low of 414,760, with trading volume of 108,800 lots and open interest of 42,400 lots (daily change -316 lots); the 2609 contract was also at 416,960, down 0.99%—after Warsh's speech, the US dollar index jumped above 99.7 (a new high since Aug 14).
Macro: Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole debut, sending the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 35% to 57% and keeping the policy window open for a September hike
. (1) Warsh's keynote speech at 22:00 on Aug 28 was "hawkish" and exceeded expectations. This was Warsh's first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office as Fed Chairman on May 22, and his speech mentioned "inflation" 25 times. Key hawkish signals: ① the 2% PCE target is "firm and fixed", and should not be subject to any misunderstanding; ②this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, "but they did not tell me that the underlying trend has improved materially"; ③ PCE was 3.7% YoY and 4.1% on a six-month annualized basis; across the 199 components, 54% still rose more than 3% over the past 12 months (post-pandemic peak 77%, pre-pandemic 20-year average 32%); ④ "It is hard to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive"—corporate bond and leveraged loan spreads are at historical lows, commercial and industrial loan standards in July were relatively loose, and real consumption grew more than 2% over the past four quarters; ⑤ "The short-term interest rate is the main tool for achieving the dual mandate", and he made clear that higher inflation would require a higher federal funds rate.
(2) The probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to about 57%. After Warsh's speech, CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of a 25bp September rate hike jumped from about 35% before the meeting to nearly 60%—"September rate hike" shifted from a "low-probability event" to "one of the base-case scenarios". The 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 10bp intraday to above 4.33% (a roughly one-month high), the US dollar index broke above 99.70 (its highest since August 14), spot gold closed down 3.20% at $4,454.23/oz, and COMEX gold futures fell 3.4%.
(3) Warsh "did not give clear forward guidance" but left the policy window open. Speaking about the speech structure, he joked at his own expense: "You can call it an outline or a roadmap—but definitely don't call it forward guidance"—consistent with the "constructive ambiguity" communication style the market expected;
(4) Three hurdles before the September FOMC meeting: ① US August nonfarm payrolls on September 4 (Warsh made clear "inflation has not materially improved + financial conditions are not restrictive"; if payrolls remain strong, the probability of a September rate hike will rise further to 70%+); ② US August CPI on September 11; ③ the FOMC decision on September 15–16—Warsh's speech has already reserved a window for a rate hike, but whether a hike materializes depends on the above two data releases.
(5) AI supply chain and geopolitics: After Nvidia's results, AI capex beat expectations, providing medium- and long-term support for tin's "solder alpha"; US-Iran tensions remain in a "quiet period," but Warsh's hawkishness and a stronger dollar are weighing on overall commodity valuations.
Fundamentals: hard constraints on ore supply have not eased, but the traditional demand off-season and negative feedback from high prices continue
(1) With Yinman Mining fully suspended, the Wa State ore ban still in place, and Indonesian exports low, supply-side hard constraints have not eased: ① Yinman Mining's mining, processing, and tailings operations are fully suspended; the duration of the shutdown at the 1.65 million mt/year core tin-silver mine is undetermined. Based on a short shutdown of 1–2 months, the impact is estimated at about 1,000 mt of tin metal content (accounting for 3%–4% of China's tin concentrates); ② Myanmar's Wa State ore ban continues; the full-year production resumption cap remains at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, and full resumption is delayed to 2027; ③ Indonesia's export quotas are low and export license approvals are progressing slowly; ④ July imports of tin concentrates fell 13.81% MoM, and ore supply tightness has substantively materialized.
(2) Demand Side: "AI Boom + Traditional Off-Season" Divergence Persists: AI enthusiasm reignited; PV and AI computing power orders were booming. However, traditional consumer electronics, solder, automotive, and home appliances remained in the off-season, and negative feedback from high prices was evident.
Spot Market
August 28 spot: futures daytime session rose 1,620 to 421,880; the night session tumbled to 417,760 after Warsh's speech; spot premiums held steady, and trading was sluggish.
Trading: market transactions mainly consisted of restocking for immediate needs; downstream wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong, and suppliers held back from selling at low prices; 421,000–423,000 was the mainstream spot quotation range; almost no transactions occurred above 430,000; 415,000–420,000 was the range where downstream buyers were willing to fix prices later.
[Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM]
![Macro Headwinds and Supply Constraints in a Tug of War, Tin Prices Mainly Move Sideways [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/pyewj20251217171752.jpg)
