As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive phase in 2026, carbon exposure is extending increasingly downstream from unwrought aluminium into semi-fabricated and fabricated aluminium products.
Following SMM's previous analysis of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601, this article examines two of the most commercially important aluminium profile categories entering the EU market: CN 76042100, covering hollow profiles of aluminium alloys, and CN 76042990, covering solid profiles of aluminium alloys, n.e.s.
Together, these two products accounted for approximately 358,100 tonnes of EU-27 extra-EU imports in 2025, representing around 86.4% of total HS 7604 aluminium bars, rods and profiles imports.
Their scale makes them a useful case study for understanding how CBAM may affect the competitiveness of downstream aluminium suppliers.
The comparison is also relatively clean from a CBAM perspective. Both CN codes use the same benchmark structure, meaning differences in theoretical default-value exposure between exporting countries are primarily driven by their country default values and assigned production routes rather than differences between the two profile products themselves.
Corrected default values widen differences between major suppliers
The European Commission published corrected definitive-period CBAM default values in August 2026 following Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740.
For aluminium, the applicable total-emissions default value is increased by 10% in 2026, with the mark-up rising to 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 onwards.
The CBAM methodology also distinguishes between two underlying aluminium production routes: route K for primary aluminium and route L for secondary aluminium.
Under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620, both CN 76042100 and CN 76042990 use the same benchmarks: 1.493 tCO₂e/t for route K and 0.152 tCO₂e/t for route L.
For comparability with SMM's previous HS 7601 analysis, theoretical 2026 unit certificate exposure in this article is calculated as:
Theoretical unit exposure = max[(base default value × 1.10) − (benchmark × 97.5%), 0]
The calculations assume a cross-sectoral correction factor of 1 and do not deduct any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin.
They therefore represent theoretical default-value-based certificate exposure rather than the final monetary CBAM liability of an individual importer or shipment.
EU alloy-profile imports reached around 358,100 tonnes in 2025
According to SMM calculations based on EU-27 extra-EU trade data, combined imports of the two alloy-profile categories increased from approximately 353,300 tonnes in 2024 to 358,100 tonnes in 2025, an increase of around 1.3% year on year.
Import value increased at a faster pace, rising from approximately €1.64 billion to €1.72 billion, or around 4.7%.
The average declared import value consequently increased from approximately €4,643/t in 2024 to €4,794/t in 2025.
CN 76042990 solid profiles remained the larger product segment.
| Product | 2024 Volume | 2025 Volume | YoY | 2025 Import Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN 76042100 Hollow profiles | 139,588 t | 143,743 t | +3.0% | €680.7m |
| CN 76042990 Solid profiles | 213,714 t | 214,314 t | +0.3% | €1.036bn |
| Combined | 353,302 t | 358,057 t | +1.3% | €1.717bn |
Solid profiles accounted for approximately 59.9% of combined imports, compared with around 40.1% for hollow profiles.
Although the aggregate market changed relatively little, the underlying supplier structure remained highly concentrated.
Türkiye supplied almost 58% of the two profile markets
Türkiye was by far the largest external supplier of both products.
EU imports of CN 76042100 hollow profiles from Türkiye reached approximately 78,400 tonnes in 2025, equivalent to around 54.5% of total hollow-profile imports.
For CN 76042990 solid profiles, Turkish supply reached approximately 128,700 tonnes, representing around 60.1% of the market.
Combined, Türkiye supplied approximately 207,100 tonnes, or 57.8% of total imports across the two categories.
The corrected CBAM default-value framework assigns Türkiye a base default value of approximately 3.741 tCO₂e/t for the two profile products under production route K.
Applying the 2026 methodology:
3.741 × 1.10 − 1.493 × 97.5% ≈ 2.66 tCO₂e/t
Applying this theoretical unit exposure to Türkiye's 2025 trade volume produces aggregate exposure of approximately 550,800 tCO₂e.
This does not mean Turkish exporters actually emitted this amount, nor does it represent an actual 2025 CBAM liability. Rather, it illustrates the scale of exposure that could arise if EU importers were required to rely on default values under the 2026 framework.
Türkiye's CBAM position therefore combines two important characteristics: large trade scale and relatively substantial default-based unit exposure.
Even a moderate difference between default and verified actual emissions could consequently have a significant aggregate impact on EU importers sourcing Turkish aluminium profiles.
Hollow profiles have a more diversified supplier structure
Although Türkiye leads both markets, the remaining supplier structures differ.
For CN 76042100 hollow profiles, Switzerland was the second-largest external supplier in 2025 at approximately 17,500 tonnes, representing around 12.2% of imports.
Bosnia and Herzegovina supplied around 9,700 tonnes, followed by China at approximately 5,900 tonnes, Morocco at around 5,500 tonnes and Vietnam at approximately 2,900 tonnes.
The hollow-profile market therefore retained a relatively broader supplier base beyond Türkiye.
Solid profiles were more concentrated.
For CN 76042990, China supplied approximately 18,600 tonnes, making it the second-largest supplier behind Türkiye.
Bosnia and Herzegovina supplied around 14,600 tonnes, Norway approximately 10,900 tonnes, Switzerland around 7,600 tonnes, and Vietnam approximately 3,200 tonnes.
The distinction is relevant under CBAM because Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland are outside the scope of the mechanism.
In 2025, these exempt origins accounted for approximately 14.8% of hollow-profile imports, compared with around 8.7% of solid-profile imports.
The solid-profile market therefore has a higher proportion of supply coming directly from CBAM-covered third countries.
China faces around 47% higher default-based unit exposure than Türkiye
China's trade volume was much smaller than Türkiye's, but its default-based carbon exposure was substantially higher.
China supplied approximately 5,919 tonnes of hollow profiles and 18,641 tonnes of solid profiles in 2025.
Combined imports therefore reached around 24,600 tonnes, with approximately 76% concentrated in solid profiles.
The corrected default value for China is approximately 4.881 tCO₂e/t under production route K.
Applying the same 2026 methodology:
4.881 × 1.10 − 1.493 × 97.5% ≈ 3.91 tCO₂e/t
China's theoretical unit exposure is therefore approximately 47% higher than Türkiye's 2.66 tCO₂e/t.
Applying the unit exposure to China's 2025 combined profile exports produces theoretical aggregate exposure of approximately 96,100 tCO₂e.
The comparison highlights an important distinction between carbon intensity and trade scale.
China carries materially higher exposure per tonne, but Türkiye's import volume is more than eight times larger. Türkiye therefore represents a much larger aggregate exposure despite its lower unit figure.
For EU buyers, this means CBAM competitiveness may increasingly become part of the delivered-cost comparison alongside metal prices, extrusion premiums, logistics and conventional trade costs.
Bosnia and Herzegovina combines meaningful volume with lower unit exposure
Bosnia and Herzegovina was also an important supplier across the two categories, providing approximately 9,700 tonnes of hollow profiles and 14,600 tonnes of solid profiles in 2025.
Combined volume was therefore around 24,300 tonnes, broadly comparable with China's.
Its default-based carbon position, however, differs substantially.
The corrected default value for Bosnia and Herzegovina is approximately 3.059 tCO₂e/t under production route K.
This produces theoretical 2026 unit exposure of:
3.059 × 1.10 − 1.493 × 97.5% ≈ 1.91 tCO₂e/t
Applied to approximately 24,300 tonnes of trade, theoretical aggregate exposure would be around 46,400 tCO₂e.
Bosnia and Herzegovina therefore represents a different competitive position: meaningful trade volume combined with materially lower default-based unit exposure than either Türkiye or China.
Vietnam remains small but is gradually gaining visibility
Vietnam remains a considerably smaller supplier but has steadily increased its presence in the EU profile market.
EU imports of Vietnamese hollow profiles increased from approximately 2,354 tonnes in 2024 to 2,943 tonnes in 2025, a rise of around 25.0%.
Solid-profile imports increased from approximately 2,865 tonnes to 3,187 tonnes, up around 11.3%.
Combined Vietnamese shipments therefore reached approximately 6,130 tonnes in 2025, around 17.5% higher year on year.
Vietnam also differs from Türkiye, China and Bosnia and Herzegovina in its assigned CBAM production route.
The corrected default-value methodology assigns Vietnam a profile default value of approximately 2.040 tCO₂e/t under route L, corresponding to secondary aluminium.
Its applicable benchmark is therefore 0.152 tCO₂e/t.
The resulting theoretical exposure is:
2.040 × 1.10 − 0.152 × 97.5% ≈ 2.10 tCO₂e/t
This demonstrates an important feature of the CBAM methodology.
Vietnam's headline default value is substantially lower than Türkiye's 3.741 and China's 4.881, but its benchmark deduction is also much smaller because the default methodology assigns the secondary route.
As a result, the difference in net theoretical exposure narrows.
| Origin | Base Default | Route | Benchmark | Theoretical 2026 Unit Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 3.741 | K | 1.493 | ~2.66 |
| China | 4.881 | K | 1.493 | ~3.91 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.059 | K | 1.493 | ~1.91 |
| Vietnam | 2.040 | L | 0.152 | ~2.10 |
Vietnam therefore remains a relatively small contributor to aggregate EU profile exposure, but its increasing market share, particularly in hollow profiles, makes its future position worth monitoring.
H1 2026 imports fell around 9.5% year on year
The first half of 2026 showed weaker overall import volumes for the two profile categories.
Combined EU imports fell to approximately 165,300 tonnes, down around 9.5% year on year.
Hollow-profile imports reached approximately 67,400 tonnes, down around 10.1%, while solid-profile imports reached approximately 98,000 tonnes, down around 9.1%.
Import value fell more moderately to around €863 million, causing the average declared import value to rise to approximately €5,221/t.
Türkiye remained dominant but also recorded lower shipments.
Hollow-profile imports from Türkiye declined approximately 10.4% year on year to around 35,900 tonnes, while solid-profile imports declined approximately 5.6% to around 59,100 tonnes.
China showed a more divergent pattern.
Chinese hollow-profile shipments increased slightly to around 2,950 tonnes, while solid-profile imports fell by approximately 21.1% to around 7,900 tonnes.
Vietnam continued to perform relatively strongly.
Hollow-profile imports reached approximately 2,030 tonnes, lifting Vietnam's share of the segment to around 3.0%, while solid-profile shipments increased approximately 10.8% year on year to around 1,500 tonnes.
Combined Vietnamese shipments increased by around 4.9% year on year despite the overall EU market contracting.
These movements should not be attributed directly to CBAM. European demand, aluminium prices, conventional trade measures, freight, producer strategies and other commercial factors may all influence import flows.
However, from 2026 onward carbon exposure has become an additional variable affecting supplier competitiveness.
Verified actual emissions could materially alter the ranking
Country default values are fallback parameters and should not be interpreted as the actual embedded emissions of every producer located within a particular country.
This distinction is especially important for aluminium profiles.
Two extrusion producers operating in the same country may source aluminium billet from very different upstream production systems. Their actual embedded emissions may vary according to primary versus secondary aluminium input, the electricity source used in primary aluminium production, recycled aluminium content, billet sourcing, extrusion and heat-treatment energy consumption, and upstream emissions traceability.
Where a producer can demonstrate verified actual emissions below the applicable fallback default value, the certificate exposure faced by its EU customer may be lower than the default-based scenario shown above.
This incentive is particularly relevant for suppliers in countries with relatively high default values.
For Chinese producers, verified actual emissions materially below the national fallback value could provide a significant competitiveness advantage.
For Türkiye, even a smaller reduction in emissions per tonne could have a major aggregate impact because of the country's dominant trade position.
For Vietnam and other emerging suppliers, credible upstream carbon data may become increasingly important as their European market presence grows.
Carbon competitiveness is becoming part of the extrusion market
The detailed CN8 data demonstrate that the EU aluminium profile market cannot be assessed solely at the broader HS 7604 level.
CN 76042100 hollow profiles and CN 76042990 solid profiles use the same CBAM benchmark structure but exhibit different trade patterns.
Türkiye dominates both markets, particularly solid profiles, and consequently represents by far the largest source of theoretical aggregate exposure.
China has a much smaller market share but a theoretical default-based unit exposure approximately 47% higher than Türkiye's.
Bosnia and Herzegovina combines meaningful regional trade volume with lower theoretical unit exposure, while Vietnam remains relatively small but continues to increase its presence.
The comparison shows that CBAM competitiveness depends on more than the headline default value.
Trade scale, production route, benchmark treatment, actual embedded emissions and carbon-data quality all matter.
As CBAM's financial significance increases over the coming years, these factors are likely to become increasingly intertwined with conventional aluminium prices, conversion costs, logistics and trade policy.
For aluminium extrusion suppliers targeting Europe, the ability to provide reliable emissions information may therefore evolve from a compliance requirement into an increasingly important commercial differentiator.
