Futures
LME: LME three-month tin in the Aug 27 electronic session closed around $55,100/mt, moving sideways after falling 1.23% the previous day.LME tin inventory rose by 470 mt on Aug 27 to 5,590 mt—the first notable rebound after multiple consecutive days of destocking; the low-inventory “short squeeze backdrop” remained intact, but the urgency eased at the margin. Registered warrants were flat at 4,505 mt, cancelled warrants were 615 mt (-35 mt), and the cancelled ratio fell to about 11%.
China (daytime session close on Aug 27): the most-traded SHFE tin 2610 contract closed at 419,420 yuan/mt, down 6,830 yuan, or 1.57%, opening at 424,090, with a high of 424,350 and a low of 416,900; trading volume was 153,565 lots and open interest was 43,263 lots (up 476 lots on the day)—the biggest decliner in the nonferrous sector (alumina was next at -1.54%). The SHFE tin continuous contract also closed at 419,420, down 1.57%; the 2609 contract closed at 418,710, down 1.53%.The 420,000 round-number level shifted completely from “forward support” to an “immediate battleground,” and the daytime-session low of 416,900 was the first line of defense in the short term.
Inventory:
- LME tin inventory: 5,590 mt (8/27, +470 mt)—the first notable rebound after consecutive destocking, easing short-squeeze urgency at the margin, but 5,590 mt remained at an absolute historical low;
- SHFE tin warrants: 5,581 mt (8/27, -224 mt)—a slight drawdown in SHFE warrants;
Macro: tonight at 22:00, Powell’s Jackson Hole debut was the ultimate variable this week, and after the PCE, the probability of a September rate hike rose to 40–42%
(1) July PCE slightly exceeded expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 40–42%.At 20:30 Beijing time on Aug 26, the US BEA released: July PCE YoY 3.7% (expected 3.6%, previous 3.7%), and MoM +0.2% (expected +0.1%); core PCE YoY 3.3%, and MoM +0.2% (in line with expectations but accelerating from the previous +0.1%). After the data release, market bets on a 25 bp hike in September rose from 36% to 40–42% (per SMM/Jiawen Futures Association); CME 8/27 data showed the probability of no change in September still at 63.5%, and the probability of a 25 bp hike at 36.5%—“standing pat” remained the base case, but hawkish forces warmed at the margin. Boston Fed President Collins stated clearly: “If evidence of continued disinflation does not emerge, I believe monetary policy should be tightened as soon as possible.”
(2) The Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Annual Conference opened today, and Waller will deliver a keynote speech at 22:00 tonight. Only 19 days remain until the 9/15–16 FOMC meeting. This will be Waller’s first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office as chair on 5/22, and the market had generally remained cautious ahead of it (Jiawen Futures’ 8/27 review characterized it as “the market had generally remained cautious ahead of it”). Multiple analysts agreed that since taking office, Waller has shortened statements, canceled the dot plot, and reduced forward guidance, and is expected not to release a clear rate signal this time ; however, former St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that “the US Fed’s credibility is at risk” — the 20-minute speech is the “decisive sentence” before September, and the market is holding its breath .
(3) The undercurrent of the US dollar and US Treasuries : After the PCE, the US dollar index shot up briefly to 99.19 (+0.29%), but during the 8/27 daytime session, US Treasury yields and the US dollar edged lower, providing short-term support for tin prices (per Minmetals Futures); the 30-year US Treasury yield stayed above 5.25%, and Bessent’s long-bond buyback “fever reducer” had limited effect — elevated long-term rates are a practical constraint on Waller’s hawkish stance .
(4) Geopolitics and the AI chain : The US-Iran situation remained in stalemate — Iran’s conditions for returning to negotiations are that the US recognize its jurisdiction over the Strait and require Israel to stop its proxy war against Iran; the Trump administration is more inclined to watch the consequences of economic pressure, and “the situation is in a calm period of neither escalation nor a return to negotiations” (Chaos Tiance 8/28 morning comment); after Nvidia’s earnings, AI capex exceeding expectations provided medium and long-term support for tin’s “solder alpha,” but in the short term it was still no match for macro pressure.
Fundamentals: Hard constraints on the ore side have not eased, but the traditional demand off-season plus high-price negative feedback has materialized
(1) July imports of tin concentrates were down 2.8% MoM, and Myanmar ore was down 27% MoM. July imports of tin concentrates were 16,958 mt, down 2.8% MoM and up 56% YoY; of which Myanmar tin concentrates were 4,570 mt, down 27% MoM and up 157% YoY — the sharp YoY increase was solely a base effect. Wa State’s pace of resuming production fell short of expectations; the full-year upper limit for resuming production remained 40%–50% of the pre-ban level, and a full resumption was delayed until 2027.
(2) Limited recovery in Indonesia’s exports : July refined tin exports were 4,564.53 mt, up 20.4% YoY; Indonesia’s Timah completed its annual inspection, and August exports may recover, but the full-year quota is relatively low and there is still uncertainty over the pace of advancing the windfall tax policy; the price boost from supply disruptions has weakened, but the strength of the export recovery remains limited .
Spot Market
8/27 Spot: Futures fell 1.57% in the daytime session, leading the declines among base metals; suppliers quoted lower, and downstream buyers, fearing further declines, stayed on the sidelines. Spot premiums were quoted at 550 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day.
Transactions: Yesterday, trading in the spot market was relatively brisk. Most traders closed 1–2 truckloads, while a few traders closed more than three truckloads. Downstream solder enterprises reported a sharp increase in orders. Meanwhile, solder enterprises carried out partial restocking, with strong purchasing enthusiasm.
[Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
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