[SMM Steel] Shipping and Payment Bottlenecks Freeze Exports as Iranian Flat Steel Markets Diverge

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s steel market remained relatively stable, with construction steel prices easing slightly to around 530 USD/tonne EXW despite VND depreciation, while domestic prices in VND remained largely unchanged. HRC prices stood at approximately 514–521 USD/tonne CFR Ho Chi Minh City. Typhoon Narra disrupted shipping routes in the Southeast Asian Sea, putting pressure on supply and lifting freight costs, which could provide some support to seaborne iron ore prices. However, iron ore gains are expected to remain limited as steel mills slow production amid widening losses, while mill inventories remain relatively high. Buyers are largely waiting for major mills to announce new prices this Friday ahead of the September 2 Independence Day holiday, which could provide a clearer signal on the market’s near-term direction.

Vietnamese steel exporters face increasing cost pressure from the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with industry estimates suggesting carbon-related costs could exceed USD100/tonne of steel for producers with high emission intensity. For a shipment of 100,000 tonnes to the EU, the additional carbon cost could reach around VND300 billion, equivalent to approximately 20% of the order value under the cited assumptions. Meanwhile, Hoa Phat is strengthening its CBAM response by allocating around 30% of investment in its production complexes to environmental improvements, maintaining greenhouse-gas inventories and calculating product carbon footprints under ISO standards, as Vietnamese mills seek to preserve competitiveness in the European market.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has expanded its anti-dumping investigation into prestressed steel bar products from China, following a petition by Hoa Phat Prestressed Steel and Viet Nhat Prestressed Steel. The investigation covers imports under HS codes 7227.20.00, 7228.20.11, 7228.20.19 and 7229.20.00, with foreign manufacturers and exporters required to submit questionnaire responses by October 2, 2026. The case adds to Vietnam’s growing use of trade-remedy measures to protect domestic steel producers from low-priced imports, while temporary anti-dumping duties could be imposed if the investigation finds continued material injury to the local industry.