Cell Module Prices Slightly Lowered; Glass Enterprise Quotations Slightly Raised [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Notes]

SMM, August 27:

Solar Cell

Prices

Solar cell prices saw a slight overall decline today, with some mainstream producers’ quotes remaining stable. The price center for 210R cells was near 0.33-0.34 Yuan/W; the 183 price range also narrowed to 0.327-0.34 Yuan/W. Market quotes and actual transactions for these two sizes were focused at 0.33-0.34 Yuan/W, with overall transactions dominated by scattered small orders. The mainstream price center for 210N cells shifted down to near 0.32 Yuan/W, and the price range was lowered to 0.314-0.322 Yuan/W. Currently, downstream module manufacturers’ purchasing attitudes remain cautious, and large-scale orders have not yet emerged. The market entered a phase of gaming and stabilization in the short term, with future focus on the release of low-priced supply and actual downstream order intake.

Production

Industry production in August was lower than in July, with some producers already beginning production line renovations. Preliminary survey results indicate that the planned production schedule for September is higher than August, mainly because some renovated lines can gradually be put into use. The actual supply growth in September still needs to be monitored based on the pace of renovation implementation at each producer.

Inventory

Amid the continuous release of dividends from the US Section 232 policy, solar cell export orders maintained a certain volume, but inventory this week decreased WoW, with the destocking pace gradually slowing. The absolute inventory level remained at a relatively low position, still providing fundamental support for the futures market, but the strength of support is marginally weakening.

Module

Prices

This week, domestic module transaction prices fell, with some divergence in quotes among domestic enterprises. On the distributed side, earlier, supported by costs, module enterprises’ guidance prices were raised, but recently, suppressed by purchases from downstream end-users, actual transaction prices basically remained unchanged. Thus, the market began to see some concessions in transactions, with the overall transaction center changing little, although low-end prices indeed edged lower. On the centralized side, from mid-August to now, there have been no tenders for large projects domestically, and new orders are relatively limited. Enterprises mainly delivered previously won orders, with little price change. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7115 Yuan/W, 0.7215 Yuan/W, and 0.7275 Yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.7035 Yuan/W, 0.7135 Yuan/W, and 0.707 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Domestic top-tier players’ operating rates basically remained stable, while specialized enterprises, due to cost pressure, have slightly reduced their operating rates recently.

Inventory

This week, module inventory in China continued to rise. Overall downstream procurement volume remained sluggish, and resistance to higher prices was strong.

PV Film

Price:

PV-grade EVA/PV-grade POE:

Currently, the mainstream transaction range for spot PV-grade EVA resin in China was 10,100-10,350 yuan/mt, with resin prices temporarily stable. Recently, EVA units at top-tier petrochemical enterprises resumed production one after another, and there were expectations for growth in PV-grade supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand for foaming had yet to show a clear recovery, making it difficult to drive enterprises’ production schedules to shift on a large scale toward foaming grades. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the actual supply-demand pattern for resin on the market.

PV Film:

Currently, the price of 420g transparent EVA film was 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and the price of 380g EPE film was 5.28-5.36 yuan/m², with film prices overall remaining stable. This week, film enterprises launched a new round of monthly price negotiations, and market offers diverged: some enterprises made tentative increases, some held steady, and a few loosened slightly. Downstream module plants currently showed weak acceptance of price hikes; at present, buyers and sellers were still in a tug-of-war, and film pricing results were expected to gradually become clearer around Friday this week.

Production

This week, switching by some petrochemical units to non-PV grades and resumptions of PV-grade production offset each other, and overall PV-grade EVA production rose slightly; August production schedules for film pulled back slightly versus expectations at the beginning of the month.

Inventory

Currently, inventory at petrochemical plants was low, and available spot cargo in the market was limited; inventory at film plants was within a reasonable and controllable range.

PV Glass:

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass was 15.8-16.3 yuan/m², and glass prices rose.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass was 16.8-17.3 yuan/m², and glass prices rose.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass was 9.3-10.0 yuan/m². This week, glass enterprises’ quotes began to be raised slightly. As production cut plans were gradually confirmed, enterprise quotes began to be adjusted step by step in line with the results of the previous meeting. Currently, some enterprises’ quotes had risen to above 10 yuan/m², but no transactions had been concluded yet. Actual transaction prices would still go through a certain amount of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream negotiations, but it was expected that once production cuts were fully implemented, expectations for higher glass prices would also strengthen.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass was 10.3-11.0 yuan/m², and glass prices rose.

Production

This week, there were no newly added furnace cold repairs or shutdowns in China, but top-tier players had basically confirmed that production cut plans would gradually begin, and subsequent reductions in China were expected to show a growing trend.

Inventory

China's glass inventory level continues to decline. At month-end, domestic module producers begin stockpiling and purchasing. Driven by rising prices, the purchase volume is expected to increase.