[SMM Steel] Vietnam Steel Market Stable Amid Weather Disruptions and Pre-Holiday Caution

HRC futures moved sideways today, with the most-traded HC2610 contract closed at 3,342 yuan/mt, down 0.24% intraday. The spot market was also under pressure, with mainstream quotations pulling back 5-10 yuan/mt. Transaction volumes weakened MoM during the day, and more traders offered discounts to sell. In terms of supply, the latest SMM survey on HRC maintenance pace shows a pattern of "shooting up this week and concentrated production resumptions next week," but overall production remains at historically low levels for the same period. On the demand side, according to the SMM survey, most clients do not hold high expectations for a market recovery from the off-season to the peak season, and downstream purchase willingness is weak. Social inventory data released intraday across multiple regions also primarily shows inventory buildup. Therefore, on balance, HRC fundamentals lack upward momentum in the short term and are likely to continue moving sideways.

[Malaysia] Malaysian flat and long steel prices moved in opposite directions this week. A major local mill’s offer for S275JR HRC stood at around MYR 2,130/tonne ($528/tonne) EXW, up MYR 20/tonne week on week. Meanwhile, market transaction prices for 16mm and 20mm B500B rebar were reported at around MYR 2,180/tonne ($540/tonne) EXW, down MYR 40/tonne week on week. Overall trading activity remained cautious, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis.

[Turkey] Both domestic and import steel billet prices in Turkey moved significantly higher. Driven by the continued absence of Russian Black Sea supplies and a recovery in domestic demand, Turkish domestic billet prices rose sharply by 15 USD/tonne to 540–545 USD/tonne EXW, while import quotes edged up synchronously by 10 USD/tonne to 505–510 USD/tonne CFR. On the domestic front, Russian supply disruptions triggered a buying rush, prompting local mills to release large volumes. On the import front, approximately 50,000 tonnes of Malaysian billet were recently booked at 512–515 USD/tonne CFR for late-September delivery. Notably, over the past two weeks, a small volume of Iranian billet reached Turkey via rail at 460–480 USD/tonne delivered, though future trade could be hindered by US sanction risks. Meanwhile, Russian Black Sea offers remained stalled due to prohibitive logistics costs, with freight to Turkey holding high at 50–70 USD/tonne alongside additional overland rail surcharges.