Futures Shot Up as Supply Tightened; North China Copper Cathode Premiums Edged Up [SMM North China Spot Copper]

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The Democratic Republic of Congo has signed a 30-year concession agreement with Mota-Engil Africa for the Dilolo–Sakania railway, marking a major step in the development of the Congolese section of the Lobito Corridor. The agreement was signed on August 26 in the presence of DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Angolan President João Lourenço. The 1,004.5-km railway serves Kolwezi, Tenke and Lubumbashi before connecting with the Angolan rail network leading to the Atlantic port of Lobito.​ According to the DRC Presidency, rehabilitation, modernization, extension, operation and maintenance of the railway will require indicative investment of approximately US$1.258 billion. Under the concession structure, the DRC will hold at least a 10% stake in the project company and receive a royalty equivalent to 7.5% of annual gross revenue. Financing and traffic-related risks will be borne by the concessionaire, without a sovereign guarantee, operating subsidy or minimum-revenue guarantee from the Congolese government.​ The railway is expected to support the movement of minerals, agricultural products, industrial inputs, hydrocarbons and other freight, while improving transport connectivity between the DRC and Angola. The two governments also agreed to work toward smoother rail operations between Sakania, Lubumbashi, Kolwezi, Dilolo, Luau and Lobito, including coordinated maintenance, greater tariff transparency and improvements at the Dilolo–Luau border crossing. The DRC government said the project is intended to lower logistics costs while supporting domestic production, processing and value creation rather than functioning solely as a raw-material export route.​ The concession is particularly significant for the copper industry because the railway directly serves Kolwezi, Tenke and Lubumbashi, key centres of the DRC Copperbelt. Rehabilitation of the route could provide copper and cobalt producers with an additional Atlantic export corridor and improve logistics flexibility relative to existing southern and eastern routes. However, the impact on actual copper flows will depend on the pace of rehabilitation, capacity additions and the eventual commercial terms offered to mining companies once the upgraded railway becomes operational.