The Strait situation has marginally eased, and under the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, aluminum prices maintain a pattern of consolidation on a subdued note [ SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes ]
[]Geopolitical Tensions in the Strait Ease, Aluminum Prices Consolidate on a Subdued Note Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers. On a comprehensive basis, macro sentiment fluctuates as new progress emerges in US-Iran talks; Iran and Oman plan to establish a secure maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, easing market concerns over geopolitical tensions. On the fundamentals side, China's aluminum ingot inventory destocking trend continues, providing bottom support for aluminum prices. However, outside China, the daily average aluminum production is expected to keep rebounding, driven by new capacity and production resumptions. The SHFE/LME price ratio is being repaired, and as orders on hand are digested, export demand is pulling back MoM but short-term resilience remains. On the domestic demand side, the transition period between slow and peak seasons has not yet been clearly defined, and the market has certain concerns about peak-season demand; in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.