SHFE/LME price ratio continues to weaken, demand is poor, and the morning market is quiet [SMM Yangshan spot copper]

[SMM Analysis: Policy Framework Review: Relationship Between Shandong Province's "Standardized Management Measures for Industrial Renewable Resource Recycling (Trial)" and Central Policies] The "Standardized Management Measures for Industrial Renewable Resource Recycling in Shandong Province (Trial)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Management Measures") was issued. SMM learned that the "Management Measures" implemented in Shandong Province this time is a "local implementation version" of a series of central policy requirements, but it is not a simple transcription of a single central document; rather, it is the first provincial-level comprehensive management measure that integrates multiple central policy lines from various ministries and dimensions over the past year or more...

Ivanhoe Mines has tightened its 2026 copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 290,000–310,000 tonnes, narrowing the previous forecast of 290,000–330,000 tonnes.​ The revised outlook, disclosed in Ivanhoe's second-quarter results on July 29, leaves the lower end of the guidance unchanged but reduces the upper end by 20,000 tonnes. Kamoa-Kakula produced 64,328 tonnes of copper in the second quarter, bringing production for the first half of 2026 to approximately 135,700 tonnes. The company's 2027 production guidance remains unchanged at 380,000–420,000 tonnes.​ The latest adjustment follows a more substantial reduction earlier this year. Ivanhoe had initially expected Kamoa-Kakula to produce between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, before lowering the range to 290,000–330,000 tonnes. The latest revision therefore places expected 2026 production as much as 130,000 tonnes below the upper end of the original forecast.​ Operational challenges continued to affect mine performance during the second quarter. Industrial action resulted in nine days of lost mining at Kakula and seven days at Kamoa, although concentrator and smelter operations continued during the disruption. Mining operations subsequently returned to normal following the conclusion of collective bargaining negotiations in July.​ Ivanhoe expects production to strengthen during the second half of the year as underground mining rates increase and concentrate inventories are processed. The company's current guidance of 290,000–310,000 tonnes remains in place, according to its latest published project information.​ The narrowing of the guidance range further limits the potential upside to Kamoa-Kakula's copper supply this year. Given the scale of the operation, the pace of the second-half ramp-up will be important in determining whether production reaches the upper end of the revised range.

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