Futures side: Today, the aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,195 yuan/mt, briefly shot up to 23,200 yuan/mt in early trading, but lacked follow-through from bulls, and prices consolidated and gradually pulled back, closing at 23,050 yuan/mt at midday, a decline of 0.63%. The rebound at the 4-hour level met resistance and pulled back under pressure, with resistance appearing, open interest declining somewhat, and short-term rebound momentum fading, turning the market back into a consolidation pattern on a weak note.
Spot side: Today, ADC12 market quotes were broadly stable, with SMM ADC12 prices unchanged from the previous trading day at 23,900 yuan/mt. On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement yet, and price increases still lack sufficient transaction support; meanwhile, the cost side still provides some support, limiting further downside, and the market is in a state where it is difficult to rise or fall, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, as the traditional peak demand season gradually approaches, some enterprises have reported marginal improvements in orders recently, and expectations for subsequent demand recovery have risen. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a narrow sideways consolidation pattern, with subsequent focus on changes in the cost side and improvement in terminal demand.
Import side, overseas ADC12 quotes were temporarily stable at $3,050-3,190/mt, with the import loss remaining small at around 900 yuan/mt, the import window still not opened, and overseas supply replenishment limited.
