Tuesday, Aug 25, 2026 Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,231/mt, edged down to $14,220/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to a high of $14,282.5/mt, and finally settled at $14,245/mt, up 0.42%, with trading volume at 16,000 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots, up 2,569 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bull accumulation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,220 yuan/mt, drifted higher to a high of 108,540 yuan/mt in early trading, then pulled back to a low of 108,120 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 108,150 yuan/mt, up 0.22%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 200,000 lots, up 8,439 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bull accumulation. [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) According to BNAmericas, the total value of mining investment projects in Peru is currently around $64 billion, and the government hopes that 60% of these investments can be realized soon. Peru's Minister of Energy and Mines, Guillermo Shinno, said in a TV interview, "We are going through the projects one by one... Over the next five years, we expect mining investment to reach $40 billion, both for brownfield and greenfield projects." Referring to these projects, the minister mentioned expansion projects such as Antamina, Cerro Verde, and Constancia, as well as La Granja, Los Calatos, Michiquillay, and El Galeno, with a total investment of $13 billion. Shinno acknowledged that permits, social conflicts, and illegal mining are major obstacles to mining projects. To address this, the Ministry of Energy and Mines will reform the permit system in the coming months to accelerate the approval process. According to official data, mining investment in H1 2026 reached $3.304 billion, just over half of the $6.3 billion total for 2025. This indicates a rebound in market confidence and expectations that the government will take measures to remove obstacles for mining investment in Peru. In 2025, Peru remained the world's third-largest copper producer after Chile and the DRC, with production of 2.77 million mt. At the same time, gold production stood at 109 mt. Spot: (1) Shanghai: On Aug 24, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 150-270 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a consolidation pattern after an initial decline. After the market opened, prices quickly edged down, hitting a low of around 107,600 yuan/mt during the session; then prices rebounded repeatedly, once rising to around 107,860 yuan/mt, but encountered significant resistance at the upper level. Approaching midday, prices pulled back again before rebounding slightly, finally closing at 107,760 yuan/mt. The morning session's trading center was overall below the average price line. The intermonth Back spread ranged between 170 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract month was between a loss of 1,080 yuan/mt and a loss of 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, SMM recorded Shanghai's social inventory at 70,800 mt, down 12,300 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu's social inventory at 16,300 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday, with the combined inventory in east China decreasing by 16,400 mt, and the destocking magnitude exceeded market expectations. In terms of supply, due to the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, port arrivals from outside China have decreased. Coupled with some shipment delays, the supplement of imported copper to the spot market has been relatively limited. On the demand side, after a slight correction in copper prices last week, downstream buyers released some dip-buying demand. Meanwhile, the intermonth Back spread once widened, increasing suppliers' willingness to sell, and market cargo flows accelerated, jointly pushing inventory down significantly. Although buying sentiment picked up during the day, transactions for standard-quality copper only occurred after continuous downward adjustments in offers, reflecting downstream's limited acceptance of higher premiums. Overall, with east China inventory declining substantially and limited import arrivals supporting premiums, but downstream still mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement on dips and suppliers remaining willing to sell, spot SHFE copper premiums against the 2609 contract are expected to remain positive today, with the center gradually stopping falling and stabilizing, and the room for continued sharp declines is relatively limited. (2) Guangdong: On August 24, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper reported a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,840 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,735 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt. Today, Guangdong's copper cathode buying sentiment stood at 2.82, up 0.14 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment stood at 2.99, down 0.03 (historical data available on the database). Overall, with premiums moving lower, downstream replenishment increased, and today's trading was better than last Friday. (3) Imported copper: On August 24, the average warrant premium fell $3/mt from the previous day to $90/mt (price range $85-95/mt); the average B/L premium fell $2/mt to $87/mt (price range $83-91/mt); the average premium for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $5/mt to $40/mt (price range $30-50/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to mid-September. (4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on August 24, the futures closing price was 107,760 yuan/mt, up 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 210 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 400 yuan/mt WoW. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index fell to 2.73, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.84. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,846 yuan/mt, down 327 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,150 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices were stable, and both secondary copper rod enterprises and secondary copper raw material traders showed weak willingness to trade. The consumption season is about to arrive, but secondary copper rod enterprises said that end-use demand has failed to meet expectations and has been suppressed by high copper prices. Prices: On the macro front, the US expanded the scope of secondary sanctions on Iran and imposed additional tariffs on Canadian goods, pushing the US dollar index back above the 99 mark, and copper prices came under pressure and pulled back. Subsequently, the US dollar's gains narrowed, and copper prices rebounded. On the fundamentals side, supply from both domestic and imported copper cathode arrivals fell in the short term, coupled with delays in some imported shipments, reducing available cargoes and tightening spot supply. On the demand side, as copper prices rebounded again, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was dampened, and enterprises remained focused on just-in-time procurement. As of Monday, August 24, SMM copper inventories in major regions across the country decreased by 19,700 mt WoW from last Monday to 114,200 mt, down 8,800 mt compared to the same period last year's 123,000 mt, with destocking in all regions. In summary, copper prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs today. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct suggestion for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
