In July, all five major aluminum foil export categories declined MoM. The flagship category—rolled, not further worked, not backed aluminum foil (0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm)—exported 46,800 mt, down 7.1% MoM, accounting for 39.4% of total July exports. On a cumulative January-July basis, the product mix remained broadly stable. The flagship category, with thickness 0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm, accounted for 38.7%, and ultra-thin aluminum foil with thickness ≤ 0.007mm accounted for 20.9%, together accounting for nearly 60%.
By country, Thailand ranked first with 9,500 mt, followed by Mexico (9,300 mt) and South Korea (8,800 mt). Notably, Indonesia, the export leader in June (10,800 mt in June), fell sharply to 8,800 mt in July (-18.8% MoM), while Mexico bucked the trend with a 14.8% increase, replacing Indonesia as the second-largest destination. India fell from 10,200 mt in June to 8,200 mt (-20.2%).
The July export landscape showed three salient features: First, traditional Southeast Asian markets collectively pulled back—Thailand -13.1%, Indonesia -18.8%, Vietnam -24.2%, Malaysia -56.0%, reflecting marginal demand weakness in the region; second, the North American market diverged against the trend—Mexico +14.8% grew counter-cyclically, Canada +1.2% edged up, but the US -10.9% continued to decline; third, the Middle East market corrected significantly due to geopolitical fluctuations—Saudi Arabia -25.3%, UAE -2.8%.
Taking a comprehensive view, SMM maintains its full-year 2026 forecast for Chinese aluminum foil exports at 1.3-1.35 million mt. Cumulative exports of 802,000 mt in January-July have laid a solid foundation for achieving the subsequent target. To reach the full-year forecast of 1.3 million mt, exports from August to December need to exceed approximately 498,000 mt, requiring average monthly exports of about 99,600 mt—a target that is not difficult even under the current SHFE/LME price ratio environment, based on the following two judgments:
First, orders on hand lock in future deliveries. According to an SMM survey, some aluminum foil enterprises have already scheduled export order deliveries from the factory through mid-October. Order-taking has not shown a sharp decline, as overseas clients locked in large volumes during the earlier widening of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, creating execution inertia with concentrated deliveries over the following months.
Second, overseas demand shows resilience, and seasonal patterns point to a not-weak Q4. Although July saw a MoM pullback, the monthly export volume of 118,800 mt remains in the historical mid-to-high range. The short-term pullback in Southeast Asia does not imply a trend collapse; the long-term logic of industrialization and consumption upgrading remains intact. The counter-trend growth in the Mexican market provides a new incremental fulcrum for the North American market, and full-year exports will likely fall within the 1.3-1.35 million mt range.
![July aluminum foil exports pulled back 9.3% MoM, but the full-year target of 1.3 million mt remains achievable [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/fFkYh20251217171651.jpg)
