Futures:
Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract on August 21 fluctuated throughout the day, opening at $1,899/mt, drifting higher in the Asian session, then gradually pulling back entering the European session, and finally closing at $1,901.0/mt, up $1.5/mt from the previous closing price, a gain of 0.08%; the day's highest price was $1,908.5/mt, lowest price $1,894.5/mt, a range of $14/mt, with a trading volume of 5,665 lots and open interest of 174,878 lots, an increase of 805 lots from the previous trading day.
Last Friday, the SHFE lead 2610 contract moved sideways overall in the night session, opening at 16,080 yuan/mt, consolidated in the 16,115-16,150 yuan/mt range, then rose to consolidate at highs in the 16,150-16,155 yuan/mt range, accelerating in late trading to touch a high of 16,175 yuan/mt, hitting a fresh one-and-a-half-month high; finally closing at 16,175 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's closing price, a gain of 0.28%; the night session traded 24,103 lots with open interest of 77,231 lots.
On the macro front:
Overseas, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, with Oman and Iran discussing resuming talks to support navigation in the Strait; US Treasury Secretary Bessent will hold a press conference today on increasing sanctions against Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to push up; last Friday spot gold surged 1.86% to a record high, international oil prices closed higher, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 99.75, and the three major US stock indices closed higher. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned of US debt default risks and suggested increasing gold allocation, while Trump said solving the $40 trillion debt problem depends on growth.
Domestically, the SASAC emphasized grasping competitive advantages in strategic industries such as new energy, automotive, and high-end equipment; data from the National Energy Administration showed that from January to July, total electricity consumption of the whole society increased 4.3% YoY, indicating the economy operated steadily overall; since the beginning of this year, 187.5 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer goods trade-in, driving sales of related commodities of about 1.32 trillion yuan. China's Ministry of Finance press conference: comprehensively upgrade consumption-promoting interest subsidy policies, include credit card installments in support, and shift more fiscal spending toward "investing in people".
Spot Fundamentals:
Last Friday, SHFE lead rose sharply, breaking through the 16,000 yuan/mt mark, and the SMM 1# lead average price rose 125 yuan/mt from the previous day. Suppliers generally held prices firm for shipments, with premiums raised overall. Primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site saw little change, tight in the north, with major producing areas having premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt and some raised to 100-150 yuan/mt. Secondary lead smelters' shipping mindset shifted, with quotes mixed, and secondary refined lead had discounts of 240 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM average price. The import window opened, leading to increased offers for imported lead (99.97%), at a discount of 450-400 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2610 contract. Downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices, making only just-in-time procurement. Medium and large enterprises waited for new month's long-term contracts, trading turned sluggish, and the traditional peak season underperformed. Smelters' shipments diverged: one group with low inventory held prices firm or suspended quotations, while another group sold at market prices, resulting in moderate regional transactions.
Inventory: LME lead inventory stood at 416,850 mt, down 250 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot inventory totaled 75,045 mt, down 209 mt from the prior week.
Today's lead price forecast:
Overall, SHFE lead held up well last week. Spot suppliers generally held prices firm, supply in northern regions was tight, and social inventory experienced slight destocking, providing support for lead prices on the downside. However, downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices, the traditional peak season underperformed, trading was light, and demand lacked follow-through. The opening of the import window added supply pressure, while a high US dollar and a pullback in LME lead limited upside room. Spot lead prices are expected to stay high and firm today, moving sideways. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of suppliers' price-holding and changes in downstream just-in-time procurement.
![Last Friday, SHFE lead night session closed at 16,175 yuan/mt, hitting a new high in recent months [SMM Lead Morning Brief].](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yqTpQ20251217171721.jpeg)