According to SMM customs statistics, refined lead exports in July were 2,178 mt, down 47.81% MoM and up 21.37% YoY; lead alloy exports were 599 mt, pulling back 32.72% MoM and down 66.88% YoY; other lead products exports were 36 mt, down 41.22% MoM and up 51.77% YoY. Exports of various lead and lead products categories generally weakened on a MoM basis.
On the import side, refined lead imports in July were 9,215 mt, down 38.95% MoM, but surged 169.69% YoY; lead alloy imports were 26,495 mt, up 15.24% MoM and up 107.25% YoY, with the import volume staying high; lead plates and other lead products imports were only 112 mt. After the peak of concentrated arrivals in June, the import arbitrage for refined lead significantly faded in July, the arbitrage window between the overseas and China markets narrowed, and China faced pressure to digest inventory from previous arrivals. Lead alloy imports showed strong resilience, while other lead products imports shrank substantially.
In July, domestic lead prices first fell and then rose, bottoming out and rebounding. In early to mid-July, LME lead inventory climbed sharply, hitting a nearly 14-year high, dragging the most-traded SHFE lead contract down to around 15,500 yuan/mt, a new low in over two years. Overseas lead ingot suppliers had a strong willingness to hold back from selling and were reluctant to trade at concessional prices.
Looking ahead to August, the market is a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, and prices are expected to consolidate. On the supply side, maintenance for primary lead enterprises will increase in mid-to-late August, tightening supply. Although losses in secondary lead have partially recovered, the MoM impact on refined lead production schedules still reaches -22,300 mt, keeping overall supply low; partial production resumptions are unlikely to change the supply pattern.
On the demand side, the traditional peak season for batteries has started below expectations; after the high-temperature holidays, downstream mainly restocks based on rigid demand, with limited stockpiling demand release. Social inventory of lead ingots rises to 75,000-79,000 mt, imposing a phased downward pressure on prices.
SMM expects the most-traded SHFE lead contract to mainly trade in the range of 15,500-16,200 yuan/mt, and the implementation of maintenance at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August is expected to drive prices to bottom out and rebound, but consumption will cap upside room. Overall, lead price performance in August is better than in July, and the willingness of overseas lead ingot inflows into China is improving MoM.
![July imports of lead alloy showed strong resilience, while the import scale of other lead materials sharply contracted [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yqTpQ20251217171721.jpeg)
