[SMM Analysis] China’s Unwrought Cobalt Imports Fell 6% MoM While Exports Dropped 38% MoM in July 2026

Imports: Import Window Deeply Shut; Long‑term Contracts and Bonded Stocks Keep Imports at Elevated Levels China imported roughly 1,055 tonnes of unwrought cobalt in July 2026, a 6% MoM decline and an 83% YoY increase. By source country/region, the top three origins for cobalt metal imports were Indonesia, Russia and Canada, with shipments of 403 tonnes, 271 tonnes and 175 tonnes respectively.

Domestic cobalt metal prices tumbled sharply in July. SMM low‑end cobalt metal prices dropped from RMB 378,000/tonne at the start of the month to RMB 338,000/tonne at month‑end, representing a monthly loss of about 10.6%. Meanwhile, low‑end cobalt metal prices in Rotterdam warehouses edged higher, rising slightly from USD 25.0/lb to USD 25.35/lb. The widening domestic‑overseas price spread pushed theoretical import losses for cobalt metal higher from around RMB 65,000/tonne early in the month to roughly RMB 98,000/tonne by month‑end, leaving the import window deeply closed. Nevertheless, certain branded cobalt metal still needed to be shipped to China due to long‑term contractual obligations and operational requirements, keeping overall import volumes stable without a material drop.

By trade mode, logistics goods entering special customs supervision zones reached 795 tonnes in July, accounting for 75% of total imports. These volumes mostly flowed into bonded warehouses in Zhejiang and Shanghai. Only about 259 tonnes entered domestic consumption via general trade. Bonded warehouses acted as a notable buffer pool, resulting in a certain divergence between import statistics and real domestic demand.

China’s average import price for unwrought cobalt stood at USD 59,296/tonne in July 2026, rising 13.53% MoM. Cumulative imports for January‑July 2026 hit 8,763 tonnes, surging 113% YoY.

Exports: Closed Export Window Weighs on Export Performance; Bonded‑zone Transshipment Dominates China exported approximately 313 tonnes of unwrought cobalt in July 2026, down 38% MoM and 68% YoY. By destination, the top three export markets were the Netherlands, the United States and Japan, receiving 83 tonnes, 71 tonnes and 49 tonnes respectively.

The sharp export decline was mainly attributable to negative theoretical export margins of roughly RMB 8,000‑10,000 per tonne through early‑to‑mid July. The closed export window dampened traders’ willingness to ship overseas.

Nearly 95% of July exports were logistics goods from special customs supervision zones, predominantly trans‑shipments within bonded zones. The average export price of China’s unwrought cobalt was USD 56,505/tonne in July 2026, falling 5.16% MoM. Cumulative exports in Jan‑Jul 2026 amounted to 2,977 tonnes, plunging 76% YoY.

Outlook: Re‑opened Export Window May Lift August Exports Domestic cobalt metal prices extended losses into August. As of August 21, SMM low‑end cobalt metal prices had fallen to RMB 300,000/tonne, while Rotterdam low‑end prices only eased moderately to USD 24.6/lb. The domestic‑overseas price spread widened further. Theoretical import losses exceeded RMB 130,000/tonne, and the import window is unlikely to reopen in the near term. By contrast, theoretical export margins turned positive in late July and kept expanding, reaching around RMB 28,000/tonne by mid‑August, reopening the export window. August cobalt metal imports are expected to remain relatively high supported by long‑term contract volumes. Exports are likely to rebound as the reopened export window takes effect with transportation lags.