[Supply-demand imbalance persists but cost support strengthens, HRC prices may consolidate next week]

Published: Aug 21, 2026 14:28

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HRC prices strengthened this week with recovering trading sentiment. In terms of supply, maintenance on rolling lines saw relatively small changes, and overall HRC production increased slightly. On the demand side, HRC apparent demand continued to deteriorate, with the off-season impact still evident. High temperatures and rainy weather remained the main bearish factors, and demand improvement awaits verification in early September. On inventory, SMM data showed social inventory of HRC across 86 national warehouses (large sample) stood at 4.4982 million mt this week, up 54,900 mt WoW, up 1.24% WoW. By region, markets in east China and north China saw inventory buildup, while markets in south China, central China and northeast China saw slight destocking. Looking ahead, the first round of coke price hikes is expected to be implemented next week, iron ore prices may consolidate with small fluctuations, and HRC cost support is expected to strengthen. However, the supply-demand imbalance is still accumulating, weighing on HRC prices with insufficient upward momentum. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to consolidate in the 3260-3360 range next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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