SMM Nickel, August 20:
Macro and market news:
(1) The US Treasury announced the expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond buybacks. It will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon Treasury bonds, to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026.
(2) Following the US Treasury's surprise announcement of increased scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, the Treasury market rebounded, pushing long-term yields significantly lower. The US dollar index fell as much as 0.85% intraday, its biggest drop in three weeks, and hit its lowest level since mid-May.
Spot market:
On August 20, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 130,250 yuan/mt, up 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt.
Futures market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and consolidated at highs in the morning session, reporting 129,560 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 1.19%.
Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks and a weaker US dollar, both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surged, with SHFE nickel reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.
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