Global Bond Yields Surge, Weighing on Silver Prices; Spot Cargo Transactions Dip to Discount [SMM Daily Commentary]

Today, SMM quoted the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(T+D) at 15,440 yuan/kg as of 10:00 am, with premiums ranging from TD-10 to 0 yuan/kg, averaging -5 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield once climbed to 4.75%, hitting a new high since January 2025; the 30-year US Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007. Yields on French, German, UK, and Japanese government bonds moved up in tandem. Soaring global bond yields weighed on precious metals. In the near term, precious metals underwent a technical pullback, and with no material escalation in Middle East geopolitical risks, the pullback room was limited. Today, attention may be given to the US Fed meeting minutes; if they release further hawkish signals, it could continue to pressure precious metals.

Spot market, the silver price decline did not effectively stimulate consumption, as downstream buying interest remained cautious, mostly leaning towards bargaining. Some suppliers gave concessions and started selling at moderate discounts, with deals concentrated at slight discounts. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mostly in the range of TD-10 to +5 yuan/kg, while quotes at parity or at a premium saw virtually no feedback, and all transactions were at a discount. In Shenzhen, some national standard material sources were concentrated around slight discounts. Today, the market quoted discounts of 75 to 65 yuan/kg against the SHFE most-traded 2610 contract.

Overall, silver prices declined in a correction today, mainly pressured by persistently rising US Treasury yields and tensions between the US and Iran. They are expected to see wild swings in the short term. In the spot market, the transaction center shifted further downward, with deals concentrated at slight discounts.