8.18 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market Hot Topics:
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel ore benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of August 2026. The HMA for the second half of August was: nickel prices at $16,960/mt (vs. $16,646/mt in the first half of August 2026), up $314, up 1.89%; cobalt prices at $55,869/mt; iron ore prices at $1.41/mt; and chrome ore prices at $6.37/mt. Based on SMM’s internal estimation model, simulated calculations were conducted for saprolite ore (Fe 20%, Cr 1%, Co 0.05%) and limonite ore (Fe 45%, Cr 2%, Co 0.10%). The HPM benchmark price changes for nickel ore of various grades were as follows:
Ni 1.2%: $46.12/wmt (up $0.64)
Ni 1.3%: $50.42/wmt (up $0.72)
Ni 1.4%: $54.57/wmt (up $0.68)
Ni 1.5%: $59.31/wmt (up $0.77)
Ni 1.6%: $64.28/wmt (up $0.86)
Macro:
(1) The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that in Q2 2026, China recorded a current account surplus of 1,333.7 billion yuan, including a goods trade surplus of 1,906.5 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 358.4 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 257.2 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 42.8 billion yuan. In H1 2026, China recorded a current account surplus of 2,617.4 billion yuan.
(2) The People’s Bank of China released financial data for July 2026. In the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, 174 million yuan less than the same period last year. At end-July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY.
Spot Market:
On August 17, the SMM average price of #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, up 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-500 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged in early trading and then stayed high, closing the morning session at 128,850 yuan/mt, up 1.0%.
Driven by factors including a mild cooling in the US July PPI and a further pullback in rate-hike expectations, base metals broadly rose, and nickel prices rebounded from last week’s lows. Expectations for Indonesia’s nickel ore RKAB quotas were loose, but sulfur prices still stayed high above $1,000/mt, leaving cost support intact. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate
On August 17, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price held steady.
Cost side, a recovery in macro sentiment drove a broad rally in base metals, and the spot production cost of nickel sulphate edged up; supply side, as costs remained elevated, some producers were willing to hold prices firm, while others, with relatively high inventory levels, sought to sell and destock; demand side, some downstream enterprises recently relied mainly on long-term contract supply, with weak sentiment for building inventories via spot orders and relatively low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Today, the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor for upstream nickel salt smelters was 2, the purchase willingness sentiment factor for downstream precursor plants was 2.3, and the sentiment factor for integrated enterprises was 2.3 (historical data is available in the database).
Looking ahead, spot-order market activity was weak in the short term, and nickel sulphate prices were under pressure overall.
NPI
On August 17, SMM reported that the market sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.91, down 0.02 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.06, flat MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.76, down 0.04 MoM. Trading in the high-grade NPI spot market further cooled, and the overall market was extremely mediocre. Downstream purchase willingness was sluggish, traders found it difficult to sell, and fixed-price offers continued to decline, with market transactions increasingly centered on the average-price model. Market sentiment was weak, and many participants chose to stay on the sidelines amid the downtrend, giving up external quotations. Downstream steel mills showed weak purchase willingness, with some enterprises directly suspending related procurement, and buying interest in the market clearly faded. Although some suppliers still held firm on high-level intentions, downstream acceptance was limited. The market generally believed the trend still needed time to fully play out; in the short term, there was a lack of upward momentum, and prices were under pressure.
Stainless Steel
According to SMM on August 17, SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Although Friday’s night session remained weak, Monday’s opening was supported by a broad strengthening in base metals, and SS successfully reversed its decline and began to rise. By the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,275 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures had already rebounded, the weak trading pattern in the morning stainless steel spot market did not improve, and traders’ quotations moved further lower. Only as futures gradually rebounded did spot transactions recover somewhat.
The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was quoted at 14,220 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums for 304/2B were in the range of 400-650 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils held steady; for cold-rolled uncut edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 125 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell by 125 yuan/mt; prices of cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged.
This week, stainless steel futures were continuously disrupted by macro sentiment and generally maintained a weak pullback trend. During the week, news about Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore approval repeatedly disturbed industry expectations; coupled with the US Fed’s relatively hawkish policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty in the market stayed high. Multiple bearish factors resonated, dragging SS futures to continue pulling back during the week. Overall, bearish sentiment dominated the market, and the center of futures trading moved steadily lower. The spot market showed a pattern of weaker spot-futures linkage, weak supply and demand but increasingly evident inventory resilience, with prices generally declining and pulling back. The market was still in the traditional consumption off-season, and signs of recovery ahead of the September-October peak season had yet to emerge. Downstream end-use purchasing sentiment remained cautious, with transactions mainly driven by just-in-time demand and no concentrated restocking. The continuity of just-in-time demand was relatively weak, making it difficult to provide upward support for spot prices. Supply side, stainless steel mills’ August production schedules rose steadily, and the pace of capacity release accelerated. Against the backdrop of end-use demand not recovering in tandem, supply-demand pressure in the market increased at the margin. However, during the week, Typhoon “White Dolphin” directly affected east China, hindering transportation at key ports and in overland logistics. Shipment and arrival paces were constrained, temporarily offsetting the pressure from supply growth. As a result, stainless steel social inventory this week basically remained stable, with no obvious inventory buildup. A reasonable inventory structure provided bottom support for spot prices. Cost and profit side, finished product prices pulled back along with futures this week, and steel mills’ efforts to hold prices firm loosened somewhat, driving spot quotations lower. However, resilience on the raw material side was sufficient, effectively limiting the price decline. During the week, NPI prices were relatively firm, providing strong support to stainless steel production costs. Meanwhile, the weak pullback in finished product prices led to a narrowing price spread between finished products and raw materials, and steel mills’ smelting profits narrowed significantly. Overall, rigid support from the cost side stood out, effectively preventing a deep decline in spot prices, and the market showed the operating characteristics of “futures down, spot weak, costs underpinning, limited downside.” Overall, this week the stainless steel market exhibited a tug-of-war pattern featuring macro headwinds dragging futures, weak off-season just-in-time demand, supply growth increasing pressure, stable inventory providing support, and resilient costs resisting declines. In the short term, the market’s weak fundamentals were clear. Steel mills’ gradual production increases will further amplify demand pressure going forward, and prices face the risk of a phased pullback; however, reasonable inventory levels and firm raw material costs provide dual support, limiting downside room, and the overall market is expected to consolidate in the doldrums. Subsequent key areas to monitor include changes in macro sentiment, the pace of fluctuations in SS futures, the recovery progress of just-in-time demand during the end-user off-season, the implementation of steel mill output increases, and changes in inventory turnover.
Nickel ore:
Philippines market:
Price-wise, nickel ore prices in the Philippines were broadly stable this week. Mainstream CIF China offers were $46/wmt for Ni 1.3%, $56.5/wmt for Ni 1.4%, and $64.5/wmt for Ni 1.5%, all flat WoW.
Freight rates on major routes also remained unchanged: Surigao–Lianyungang $14.50/wmt, Surigao–Ningde $13.50/wmt, Zambales–Lianyungang $12.75/wmt, and Zambales–Ningde $12.25/wmt. Downstream smelters in China held relatively ample inventory, with limited restocking demand, and procurement remained cautious.
Weather-wise, some nickel ore producing areas in the Philippines were affected by a typhoon and related adverse weather this week, causing disruptions to production at some mines, inland transportation, and port loading. Overall impact on Palawan and Homonhon Island was relatively limited, but intermittent rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions occurred in some areas, leading to delays in vessel schedules and loading pace. Zambales was more noticeably affected by heavy rainfall and strong winds, with localized disruptions to some port operations and ore transportation. Overall, the typhoon mainly affected certain ports and shipments and did not cause a widespread interruption to Philippine nickel ore supply.
In terms of supply and demand and market sentiment, the Philippine nickel ore market continued to show a pattern of relatively loose supply and weak demand. Although the typhoon caused temporary disruptions to ports and shipments in some areas, overall mine production and exports largely held steady, and spot supply remained generally ample. Localized vessel delays may tighten some spot supply in the short term, but were not enough to change the overall market structure of relatively loose supply.
Downstream smelters in China held relatively ample inventory, and procurement mainly met just-in-time production needs, with overall transactions subdued. Supported by freight rates and production costs, Philippine mines kept offers relatively firm and were unwilling to cut prices materially; however, amid relatively loose supply and limited demand recovery, downward pressure on low-grade nickel ore gradually increased. By contrast, high-grade nickel ore prices were relatively firm, mainly supported by stable procurement demand from NPI smelters and a relatively tight supply-demand balance for high-grade NPI raw material.
Looking ahead, over the next week, as the typhoon’s impact gradually weakens, mine production and port loading in the Philippines are expected to progressively return to normal, though some ports may still see schedule adjustments. Overall market supply is expected to remain relatively loose, and downstream China is still expected to focus on just-in-time procurement, with limited improvement in demand. Against a backdrop of relatively loose supply and a slow demand recovery, low-grade nickel ore prices were expected to remain under pressure, while high-grade ore prices were relatively resilient. In the short term, market sentiment was still expected to stay cautious. Price moves for low-grade ore mainly depended on the pace of downstream restocking in China, the recovery of Philippine ports, and subsequent spot supply.
Indonesia market:
Pricing, this week was the last week of the HMA pricing cycle for the first half of August, with HMA at $16,646/mt. Affected by recent declines in HMA and HPM, Indonesia’s nickel ore prices were generally weaker; however, with ample market supply and high smelter inventory, actual mainstream transaction prices were basically stable WoW. CIF prices for limonite were about $29/wmt for Ni 1.2% and $31/wmt for Ni 1.3%; saprolite was about $52.6/wmt for Ni 1.4% and about $60/wmt for Ni 1.5%. Mainstream transaction prices for low-grade nickel ore were about $31/wmt. In the short term, with ample supply and cautious procurement, ore prices were expected to remain stable, and the market continued to watch RKAB additional quotas and their impact on supply.
Weather, overall weather conditions in Indonesia’s main nickel-producing areas were manageable. Morowali and Konawe saw intermittent rainfall, but it did not have a noticeable impact on mining, transportation, or port operations. Halmahera had relatively more rainfall; localized heavy rain could cause phased disruptions to mining and logistics, but there were no widespread supply interruptions. Obi Island also had intermittent rainfall, and overall mining and loading activities remained normal. Overall, this week’s weather had a limited impact on Indonesia’s nickel ore supply and logistics.
Supply and demand and market sentiment, supply in Indonesia’s nickel ore market remained relatively ample. Saprolite inventory continued to edge up, while limonite inventory declined somewhat as some HPAL projects gradually ramped up production. At present, inventory at most smelters was still enough to last about two months, reducing the need for additional spot procurement.
Policy and RKAB, this week Indonesia’s nickel ore market continued to focus on additional RKAB quotas for 2026. ESDM continued to emphasize that RKAB adjustments needed to be assessed based on actual production, downstream industrial demand, market conditions, and the overall supply-demand balance, rather than an automatic relaxation of quotas.
The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) proposed adding a 30 million mt strategic buffer quota on top of the existing RKAB of about 270 million mt, bringing the potential total to about 300 million mt. APNI said that as Indonesia’s smelting capacity continued to expand, the nickel ore required for about 80 smelters to operate at full capacity could reach about 315 million mt/year, hence the need for additional buffer room.
Meanwhile, Weda Bay Nickel (WBN)’s additional RKAB also became another focus this week. Market sources previously reported that WBN might obtain an additional quota of about 25 million mt, but the ESDM has not yet officially confirmed this additional quota, so it should not be included in approved supply at this stage. Subsequent RKAB adjustments for WBN will remain a key variable affecting Indonesia’s limonite ore supply and market sentiment.
Overall, government policy continues to focus on balancing downstream raw material demand with mineral resource controls. Whether APNI’s proposed 30 million mt buffer quota and WBN’s additional quota are ultimately approved will directly affect expectations for nickel ore supply in H2.
Looking ahead, over the coming week, Indonesian nickel ore prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note. Ample supply, relatively high smelter inventories, and cautious procurement will continue to limit upside room. The market will continue to watch for new RKAB approvals and APNI’s proposed 30 million mt strategic buffer quota plan. If a large volume of new quotas is approved, increased supply may further depress ore prices; if approvals progress slowly or quota releases are limited, high-grade limonite ore prices may receive some support. In the short term, the market is expected to remain largely on the sidelines.
