Futures
LME: LME 3-month tin closed overnight at $56,025/mt, up $200, up 0.36%, with an intraday high of 56,455 and a low of 55,620; it remained firm at elevated levels among London base metals, and with low inventory support, tin’s price resilience stood out.
China: SHFE tin 2609 closed the daytime session at 427,380 yuan/mt (+0.04%); the night session was quoted at 429,620 yuan/mt, up 1,560, +0.36%.At the open at 09:02 on 8/17, 2609 was quoted at 431,530 yuan/mt, up 3,470, +0.81%, with an open of 428,580, a low of 427,660, a high of 432,650, an average of 430,670, trading volume of 79,367 lots, and open interest of 43,925 lots—at Monday’s open, bulls added positions and pushed higher; 429,000 (below the 430,000 round-number level) was the first test level in early trading.
Inventory:
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LME tin inventory was 5,485 mt on 8/14, down 50 mt on the day (multiple sources including Shengyishe/World Aluminum Network/Jin10 were consistent), with registered warrants at 4,680 mt and cancelled warrants at 805 mt, with a cancellation ratio of 14.68%—the “short squeeze undertone” of low inventory + high cancellations remained intact;
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SHFE tin inventory rose to 5,452 mt on 8/14, up 324 mt on the day (Shanghai 1,907 flat, Guangdong 3,487 +324, Jiangsu 58 flat), with concentrated inflows into warehouses in Guangdong; exchange tin inventory rebounded to about 10,000 mt;
Macro: mild PPI brought the probability of a September rate hike down to about 32%; Jackson Hole (8/27–29) will see Wosh’s debut, but he may not provide rate signals
(1) The US July PPI missed expectations across the board, with inflation cooling further.Bureau of Labor Statistics: July PPI YoY 4.7% (expected 4.9%, previous 5.5%), and MoM flat (expected +0.2%, previous revised from -0.3% to -0.1%); core PPI YoY 4.2% (in line with expectations), and MoM +0.2% (expected +0.3%). Energy prices MoM -3.1% (gasoline -5.7%) were the main drag, and service price gains slowed down.
(2) The probability of a rate hike fell further to about 32%.After the PPI release, traders lowered bets on a September rate hike, with the latest probability at about 32% (about 38%–40% before the PPI release; per NetEase/Cailian Press). Consecutive mild CPI and PPI readings made “limited urgency for short-term policy adjustments” the prevailing market view. The pullback in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, together with a rebound in risk appetite—“easing trades” were the core driver behind the broad rally in base metals, with tin showing the greatest upside elasticity on low inventories.
(3) Jackson Hole 2026 will be held on August 27–29, under the theme “Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy Implications.” This will be Walsh’s first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office as Chair on May 22, and the market is highly focused on his remarks. However, multiple analyses (Regards of Wall Street/WealthFargo) cautioned: Walsh stated in June that he would not disclose the dot plot and would shorten forward guidance, leaning toward “letting the market guess”; he recently said Jackson Hole would focus on “long-term structural issues rather than recent data”—it is expected that Walsh will not release a clear rate signal this time, and “boredom” itself is marginally positive for risk assets. What will truly affect the September 16 FOMC remains three data releases: August PCE (8/29) + August nonfarm payrolls (9/4) + August CPI (9/11).
(4) Geopolitics and the AI chain: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been repeatedly volatile (Iran denies a full reopening, and US–Iran relations remain a variable for oil prices); Industrial Fulian’s H1 net profit +96%, AI server capex at elevated levels, and tin’s “solder alpha” medium and long-term support remains intact.
Fundamentals: Yinman fully halted + Wa State capped at 50%, with hard supply constraints still not easing
(1) Yinman Mining’s mining and processing + tailings have fully halted, and the duration of the shutdown remains uncertain. Xingye Silver&Tin announced on 7/31: mining, ore dressing, and tailings systems have all been shut down, and the 350,000 mt surface ore buffer has become ineffective; the core tin-silver mine with 1.65 million mt/year mining and processing capacity, assuming a short suspension of 1–2 months, is estimated to impact tin metal content by about 1,000 mt (accounting for 3%–4% of China’s tin concentrates); if the investigation/rectification extends to Q4, the ore supply deficit in China will further widen.
(2) Wa State’s “50% cap” remains unchanged: the annual ceiling for resuming production is locked at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, and a full resumption has been postponed to 2027; the February apportionment of pumping fees (exports +5% + the original 30% in-kind tax = 35% in total) lifted mining costs, and the April explosion at the Bangkang explosives plant disrupted the explosives supply chain; in July, Myanmar’s monthly tin ore exports to China returned to above 6,000 mt, still only 40%–50% of normal levels.
Spot market
transactions: macro sentiment shifts and an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with night session open interest edging up.”Futures moved sideways within the 425,800–430,360 range, and downstream and end-users released more willingness than earlier to inquire and fix prices within the 425,000–427,500 range; some solder plants and electronics enterprises completed small-lot transactions. However, above 430,000, solder plants basically did not place orders, and the willingness to chase purchases was weak. Overall, the day was characterized by “rigid demand release after a high-level narrow-range move sideways, rather than the start of proactive restocking”—ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder remained in off-season wait-and-see mode; demand for high-end solder related to AI servers and advanced packaging showed resilience, but in the short term it was not enough to boost spot cargo volumes.
[Data Source Statement: Other data besides public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]
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