Macro sentiment repeatedly fluctuated, compounded by a tight supply gap on the ore side, keeping tin prices swinging wildly at highs [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, August 17, 2026

Market Review: Last week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract swung wildly at highs. Macro sentiment, driven by repeated repricing of the interest-rate-hike path, dominated the short-term pace. Low inventory and a hard supply gap on the ore side provided bottom support for prices, while the off-season in consumption and fund outflows constrained upside room. Futures prices mainly tugged of war in the range from above 420,000 yuan/mt to above 430,000 yuan/mt. In the spot tin ingot market, after prices loosened from highs early in the week, downstream and end-user purchase willingness was released to some extent, with more inquiries and posted offers, and transactions recovered slightly. Mid-week, when the futures center pulled back to lows, it stimulated some just-in-time procurement orders, but after low-price demand was released, wait-and-see sentiment rebounded. Toward the weekend, prices still stayed above 420,000 yuan/mt, purchase willingness was weak, with only sporadic posted offers of single-digit mt, and overall transactions remained cautious in the off-season.

Market Forecast:

On the macro front, weaker US employment data combined with a mild pullback in inflation cooled expectations for further US Fed interest rate hikes significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields pulled back. However, core inflation remained sticky and officials’ hawkish stance had not been withdrawn; together with recurring geopolitical tensions, macro sentiment stayed cautious overall. Inventories outside China were at extremely low levels with a relatively high share of cancellations, deliverable supply remained tight, and LME tin had a squeeze undertone and downside support. China’s tin market overall remained in a tight balance where supply constraints were stronger than demand elasticity. Supply side, the duration of Yinman Mining’s production halt remained uncertain, the cap on Wa State production resumptions stayed low and restrictive, imported ore supplementation was limited, and tin concentrate TCs in China remained at low levels; ore-side supply elasticity continued to be pressured, and growth on the smelting side was not smoothly transmitted. Demand side, after tin prices retreated after rapid rise during the week, downstream and end-user just-in-time pricing demand was released to some extent, but ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder remained in off-season wait-and-see mode. High prices clearly suppressed transactions; only high-end solder demand related to AI servers and advanced packaging maintained resilience, making it difficult to boost spot volume in the short term. China’s visible inventory declined slightly, providing support for prices. Overall, expectations for macro easing and hard supply constraints provided downside support, while the demand off-season and high-price suppression limited upside room. Tin prices are expected to swing wildly at highs next week, and SHFE and LME may continue the trading pace of retreating after rapid rises with support at lows. Investors are advised to avoid chasing prices on a one-way basis, focus on phased just-in-time procurement on pullbacks, and closely monitor macro data, inventories outside China, and supply changes in Wa State and Yinman.