[Domestic Iron Ore Brief] Next week, domestic ore price gains are expected to trail imported ore prices, and the price spread between domestic and imported ore is likely to continue narrowing.

[Flat Products]Today some HRC and other flat-product export prices rose 1-2 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC transaction prices at 484-487 USD/tonne. Market participants report that the enquiry atmosphere for hot-rolled coil is rather quiet, while cold-rolled and coated grades are performing somewhat better, with low prices releasing some business. [Billet]Today billet export FOB prices ran steady to firm, rising 1 USD/tonne, with Jiangyin port offers at 449-454 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, the basis is currently at a reasonable level, many domestic traders were covering short positions, and export business improved. [Rebar]Today rebar export offers at Tianjin port were steady, with overall transaction prices at 472-477 USD/tonne. According to exporters, overseas enquiries were fair in the morning session, but futures fell back in the afternoon and market sentiment returned to cautious watching, with no clear pick-up in volume

Iron ore futures traded firmer today. The DCE most-active contract I2701 settled at RMB 710.5/mt, up 0.42% from the previous session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose RMB 5-9/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in offering, while mills showed limited enquiry, leaving overall spot transaction volumes moderate as of press time.

This week, HRC prices strengthened compared with the previous week, and overall transactions improved from the previous week. Supply side, the impact from rolling-line maintenance declined WoW this week, and overall HRC production increased. Demand side, apparent demand rose WoW this week. Inventory side, total HRC inventory fell 74,000 mt WoW this week, and mill inventory rose 2,400 mt WoW. Social inventory side, SMM-tracked HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 4.4432 million mt this week, down 76,300 mt WoW (-1.69% WoW) and up 34.48% YoY on a Gregorian calendar basis. By region, except for small inventory buildups in Central China and Northeast China, all other markets were destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke prices showed strong performance this week, boosting HRC cost support. Looking ahead, expectations for the first round of coke price hikes remain, and combined with lingering disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiation news, cost support has strengthened somewhat. From a fundamentals perspective, the impact from HRC maintenance will gradually decrease going forward, and HRC production is expected to continue rebounding; on the demand side, however, downstream demand has yet to recover, and demand remains mainly rigid at a weak level. Next week, HRC inventory is expected to remain in the late-off-season inventory buildup phase, and fundamental pressure remains. HRC prices are expected to follow cost-side fluctuations next week, and the most-traded contract is expected to trade in the 3,230-3,300 range.