SHFE Lead Drifted Lower, Dragged by the Sector; Short-Term Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Limited Decline [Lead Futures Brief]

SMM, August 14:

Intraday, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,850 yuan/mt and consolidated on a subdued note overall, with a morning trading range of 15,775-15,850 yuan/mt. The afternoon range narrowed to 15,785-15,830 yuan/mt, and it finally closed at 15,825 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt, or 0.63%, from the previous closing price; open interest was 39,136 lots, down 2,387 lots on the day, showing a decline on reduced open interest.

It is worth noting that today's decline in SHFE lead was mainly dragged down by overall weakness in the nonferrous metals sector, rather than by independent weakness in its own fundamentals. Currently, with the most-traded contract rollover approaching, the 2610 contract has continued to build open interest, and fund repositioning may exacerbate futures fluctuations. In the short term, SHFE lead is expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Phased supply-side tightening provides some support on the downside, but inventory accumulation and weak demand limit upside room. Going forward, attention should be paid to primary lead smelting maintenance, secondary lead production resumptions, and changes in spot lead transactions.