Germanium, Tantalum, Indium, and Pr-Nd Soar This Year, Multiple Enterprises Report Positive Interim Earnings Forecasts, Minor Metal Sector Strengthens, China Rare Earth Hits Limit Up [SMM News Flash]

SMM, August 14:

In H1, Pr-Nd prices rose significantly, and the results of the 10 companies related to the rare earth industry chain that had already reported rose to varying degrees. Boosted by the substantial rise in spot prices of minor metals such as germanium, tantalum, and indium this year, the semi-annual results of rare and dispersed metal companies such as Yunnan Germanium also showed notable growth. On the other hand, the AI computing power hardware expansion narrative continued to gain traction, and the market focused on expected incremental demand for rare and dispersed metals from optical modules and semiconductor targets. Combined with some market funds positioning early in the minor metals sector, the minor metals industry bucked the trend on August 14. As of the close on August 14, the minor metals sector was up 2.02%. Among individual stocks: China Rare Earth hit limit up, while China Rare Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Orient Tantalum, Huaxi Nonferrous, China Northern Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten led gains.

Spot Market

Germanium

According to SMM price data, on August 14, the average price of germanium ingot was 24,500 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 13,500 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the 24,500 yuan/kg average price of germanium ingot has risen 81.48% year to date.

This year's rise in germanium ingot prices was mainly supported by tight supply, while overall stable demand from end-use industries provided demand-side support for firm germanium prices. Looking ahead, whether germanium prices can extend their gains will depend on the intensity of the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream and marginal changes in supply-demand fundamentals.

Tantalum

On August 14, the price of SMM tantalum ingot (Ta≥99.95%) was 6,200-6,300 yuan/kg, with an average price of 6,250 yuan/kg. Compared with the average price of 2,980 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the average price of 6,250 yuan/kg has risen 109.73% year to date.

Tantalum prices have been supported by demand from emerging fields such as AI servers, but traditional downstream demand has been relatively weak, capping upside room to some extent. Looking ahead, as there has been no significant shift in the supply-demand pattern, tantalum ingot prices are expected to remain stable.

Indium

On August 14, the average price of refined indium was 5,450 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 2,825 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the average price of 5,450 yuan/kg has risen by 2,625 yuan/kg year to date, up 92.92%. In the medium and long term, as domestic substitution of indium phosphide is realized at an accelerating pace, profit distribution in China's indium industry chain is expected to shift upward.

Pr-Nd oxide

Pr-Nd oxide posted a significant gain in H1 this year, boosting earnings of related enterprises along the rare earth industry chain. A review of Pr-Nd oxide's H1 price performance shows: On June 30, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, an H1 gain of 22.42%. Meanwhile, its daily average price in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 3,095,771.8 yuan/mt YoY from 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY gain of 71.84%.

On August 14, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 722,000 yuan/mt, up 0.98% from the previous trading day. Boosted by the recovery in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices, low-priced supply in the market tightened, suppliers slightly raised their offers, and this lifted Pr-Nd oxide prices somewhat. In the near term, as market trading activity gradually recovers, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to stop falling and rise.