Friday, August 14, 2026
Futures Market: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,071/mt and dipped to $14,066/mt in early trading. The copper price center then drifted higher to touch $14,151.5/mt and eventually closed at $14,135.5/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest reached 266,000 lots, up 2,423 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long-side position additions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,930 yuan/mt and rose to 107,990 yuan/mt in early trading. The copper price center then moved straight down to a low of 107,660 yuan/mt, and it later consolidated with wild swings to close at 107,790 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest reached 206,000 lots, down 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long-side position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Report] News: (1) The US July producer price index (PPI) rose 4.7% YoY, compared with an estimated 4.9% and a prior 5.5%. The US July PPI was flat MoM, compared with an estimated 0.2% increase. The slowdown in US July PPI exceeded expectations, prompting traders to trim bets on Fed rate hikes in September; the latest probability was 32%, versus 38% before the PPI data release.
(2) The Ministry of Commerce determined that if the anti-dumping measures were terminated, dumping and injury to the domestic industry in China caused by imported single-mode optical fiber originating in India could continue or recur. It decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties for five years starting from August 14, 2026.
Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: On August 13, the SHFE copper 2608 contract moved sideways in early trading, with the overall price center slightly lower. It opened at 108,300 yuan/mt, edged up to an intraday high of 108,470 yuan/mt after opening, then mainly traded between 108,150 yuan/mt and 108,450 yuan/mt, with the overall price center slightly lower, and closed at 108,300 yuan/mt. For today, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 79,300 mt, up 1,000 mt from Monday; Jiangsu social inventory was 18,100 mt, flat from Monday. East China inventory rose slightly overall, and spot supply has not shown obvious tightening yet. Nearing delivery, the backwardation spread between next-month contracts widened further to 600-750 yuan/mt. Higher contract rollover costs pushed some suppliers to accelerate spot sales, and quotes against the 2608 contract subsequently fell rapidly.
(2) Guangdong: On August 13, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, with fewer arrivals and slightly higher warehouse withdrawals. The futures spread widened further from the previous day to close to 700 yuan/mt. With such a wide spread, downstream users were cautious in purchasing, and suppliers proactively cut prices to sell, causing premiums to keep falling. Even so, actual transactions remained very thin.
(3) Imported copper: On August 13, average warrant prices fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $95/mt (price range: $89-101/mt); average B/L prices were flat from the previous trading day at $90/mt (price range: $85-95/mt); average EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices were flat from the previous trading day at $62/mt (price range: $56-68/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. That day, the nearby LME backwardation structure narrowed, and the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered, keeping some suppliers in a wait-and-see stance. Downstream buying sentiment remained sluggish, and bid-offer gaps between buyers and sellers remained wide, with actual transactions quiet.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 13, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 108,300 yuan/mt, down 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 145 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices were unchanged from the previous day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index was flat at 2.712, and the purchase sentiment index was flat at 1.83. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,596 yuan/mt, down 281 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,670 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, with the front-month futures contract nearing delivery, the spread between futures contracts widened to 800 yuan/mt. Although scrap utilization enterprises shifted their pricing to the September contract, the clear downtrend in forward contracts left their purchase willingness mediocre. Copper scrap suppliers offered prices unchanged from yesterday, and overall market transactions were ordinary.
Prices: On the macro front, rate futures markets have cut pricing for Fed rate hikes this year to 23 bp, no longer fully pricing in one complete rate hike. Fed officials Hammack and Barkin reiterated that more rate hikes were still needed, while Goolsbee argued that inflation was mainly driven by tariffs and oil prices and could be a one-off factor; the overall stance remained hawkish. In the Middle East, Iran warned that no one may safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz without approval. The US military formed a multinational drone force and dispatched the USS Washington aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with military deployments continuing to strengthen, driving overnight copper prices to consolidate at highs. Fundamentals side, supply was generally ample, but high-quality copper and SX-EW copper were relatively scarce, with clear differentiation among brands. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back slightly, downstream buyers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment near delivery, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand and overall weak performance. Inventory side, as of Thursday, August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell 2,500 mt WoW to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than 125,600 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a sideways-to-firm trend today.
[Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models and are for reference only; they do not constitute investment advice.]
![Pullback in Rate-Hike Expectations and Mismatch in Inventories Outside China Lift Copper Price Center [SMM Macro Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VLmFt20251217171709.jpg)
![Copper Prices Consolidate at Highs, Suppressing Demand; Secondary Copper Category Coefficients Diverge [SMM Ex-China Copper Scrap Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnFuh20251217171711.jpg)
