[SMM Analysis] Spot lithium carbonate prices drift lower amid cautious downstream procurement

Today, the SMM spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell slightly compared with the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened higher today at 150,100 yuan per tonne, but fluctuated lower after the opening, trading weakly below the moving average line during the morning session and hitting a low of 147,100 yuan per tonne; Around midday, the entry of bullish capital drove a volatile rebound in prices. In the afternoon, bulls intensified their efforts, causing prices to surge rapidly above 150,000 yuan per tonne and reach an intraday high of 152,400 yuan per tonne, before encountering some profit-taking and retreating from those highs; In the final trading session, prices consolidated within a narrow range of 151,300–151,500 yuan, eventually closing up 1.73% at 151,400 yuan per tonne, with open interest decreasing by 27,059 contracts.

In the spot market, downstream buyers maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance, primarily purchasing on a needs-based basis when prices dipped; upstream lithium salt producers showed a slight easing in their reluctance to sell spot orders. Overall, market enquiries and actual transactions remained subdued. This week, domestic lithium carbonate production rebounded slightly, primarily due to the completion of maintenance at a small number of lithium salt plants and sustained high output in the salt lake regions. Judging by market transactions and inventory levels, the impact of maintenance at lithium salt plants on the supply side persists, with plants undergoing maintenance continuing to prioritise fulfilling long-term contracts; as prices fluctuated upwards, some lithium salt plants showed a greater willingness to sell spot orders, leading to a corresponding drawdown in inventories. Downstream materials manufacturers, however, have adopted a cautious procurement approach, primarily relying on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials. Although a small number of enterprises have chosen to take delivery of warehouse receipts, spot spot purchases have been relatively limited, resulting in a significant reduction in inventories. At the trading level, with upstream manufacturers showing a slight easing in their willingness to sell spot orders and downstream buyers becoming increasingly cautious, overall inventories have remained largely stable.