[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] JPMorgan Upgrades Aperam and Outokumpu, Bullish on European Stainless Recovery

Published: Aug 13, 2026 09:51

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JPMorgan upgraded Aperam and Outokumpu from Neutral to Overweight, forecasting 2027 EBITDA of €757 million and €571 million respectively, 7% and 5% above market consensus, with price targets of €57 and €6.50 per share, implying 21% and 19% upside from August 10 closing prices. The key catalyst is the EU's new steel safeguard measures effective July 1, which cut stainless steel import quotas by 55–65%, reducing import penetration to approximately 15%, described by JPMorgan as a "game changer" for EU steel producers. The bank projects EBITDA growth of over 50% YoY for all three European stainless producers in 2026, accelerating to over 100% in 2027, outperforming carbon steel peers facing decarbonization capex pressures. Acerinox was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral, though its ~50% YTD share price gain leaves it approximately 11% above JPMorgan's new €16.10 December 2027 target price.

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