Thursday, August 13, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,230/mt, initially moved higher in choppy trading to touch a high of $14,262/mt, then the price center fell sharply, dipping to $14,096.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,109.5/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume reached 16,900 lots, and open interest reached 263,000 lots, up 1,892 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting fresh short positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,610 yuan/mt, touched a high of 109,730 yuan/mt shortly after opening, then drifted lower in choppy trading, dipping to 107,730 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 107,780 yuan/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest reached 212,000 lots, down 2,364 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) The latest US inflation data was broadly mild, easing near-term market concerns about a larger-than-expected rebound in prices, though it remains far from the sustained cooling signals needed for a US Fed policy pivot. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that July CPI rose 3.4% YoY, edging down from 3.5% in June and marking the lowest level since March. Core CPI YoY growth narrowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, with both readings in line with market expectations.
(2) The People's Bank of China released its China monetary policy implementation report for Q2 2026. In the next stage, the People's Bank of China will firmly focus on the primary task of high-quality development, steadily advance Chinese modernization, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, fully leverage the effectiveness of existing policies, promptly plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, step up efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, and promote sustained economic development that is newer, better and more favorable.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On August 13, the SHFE copper 2608 contract showed an overall pattern of retreating after a rapid rise and then rebounding. It opened at 108,220 yuan/mt, rose quickly after the open, and mainly traded between 108,500 yuan/mt and 108,650 yuan/mt. Prices then edged down slightly, dipping to 108,370 yuan/mt, and after stabilizing they rose again, touching a session high of 108,730 yuan/mt before closing at 108,620 yuan/mt. As delivery approached, the next-month backwardation widened further to more than 300-400 yuan/mt; suppliers' rollover costs rose accordingly, their willingness to sell spot cargoes strengthened, and this visibly pressured front-month contract premiums. During the day, sales and purchasing sentiment improved somewhat from yesterday, but with the SHFE copper price center rising above 108,000 yuan/mt, downstream users mainly made just-in-time procurement and showed limited acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Meanwhile, some standard-quality copper had fallen to a discount of 10 yuan/mt to near parity, discounts for non-registered copper widened further, and low-priced cargoes continued to pressure mainstream standard-quality copper quotes.
(2) Guangdong: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with the price spread between futures contracts widening sharply, suppliers were eager to sell and cut prices sharply, but transactions were still unsatisfactory.
(3) Imported copper: The average warrant price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $99/mt (price range: $93-105/mt); the average B/L price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $95/mt (price range: $90-100/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $58-68/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. Today, the backwardation structure of near-end LME contracts continued to widen; combined with a weakening SHFE/LME price ratio, downstream buying interest was low, while upstream offers did not decline significantly, and actual market transactions were sluggish.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on August 13, the futures closing price was 108,680 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -5 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices rose 100 yuan/mt from the previous day, the copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.72, and the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.83. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 5,116 yuan/mt, down 118 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,000 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, tax-inclusive cargoes became increasingly tight, and copper scrap traders reported that the invoice tax rate for copper scrap had reached 12%. The rise in invoice costs forced more scrap utilization enterprises to lower copper scrap prices. Therefore, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap has widened recently, with rising invoice costs being one of the main reasons.
Prices: On the macro front, US July CPI data was mild, and market expectations for a September rate hike fell to around 40%. On the Middle East front, Iran said there was no need to extend the ceasefire, Pakistan indicated that the memorandum of understanding period could be extended, Kuwait foiled an attack plot, and Trump claimed that the US had full control over the Strait of Hormuz. With Middle East uncertainty persisting and inflation data in line with expectations, copper prices retreated after a rapid rise overnight. On the fundamentals side, supply-side shipments increased near delivery, and circulating cargoes became marginally looser; however, high-quality copper remained tight while non-registered copper supply was ample, resulting in overall structural divergence. On the demand side, high copper prices and the off-season kept demand persistently weak with little improvement. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a narrow rangebound and slightly firmer trend today.
[Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are based on public information and market communication and are processed by SMM using its internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
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