LME Zinc Inventory Continues Destocking, LME Zinc Price Center Moves Higher [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, August 13

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,727.5/mt, drifted lower in early trading to a low of $3,726/mt, then stopped falling and rebounded. It hit a high of $3,786/mt during the night session, but gains narrowed near the close, and it ended up at $3,745/mt, up $10.5/mt or 0.28%. Trading volume fell to 10,364 lots, and open interest increased by 145 lots to 250,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 25,935 yuan/mt in the night session, which was the intraday high. Subsequently, bulls cut positions, and SHFE zinc declined all the way to a low of 25,695 yuan/mt near the end of the session, before closing down at 25,720 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.43%. Trading volume fell to 53,350 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,944 lots to 111,000 lots.
Macro: US core inflation for July was mild, easing pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates; Trump: the US has full control over the Strait of Hormuz; White House Press Secretary Leavitt will leave office at the end of this month; Black Sea grain shipments were hit again, with three major Russian grain terminals damaged; PBOC: promptly plan and roll out pragmatic and effective incremental policies, and strengthen countercyclical adjustments.
Spot:
Shanghai: Buying sentiment for refined zinc in the region was 1.84, and selling sentiment was 2.54. Yesterday, SHFE zinc futures prices continued to consolidate at highs. Downstream enterprises remained fearful of high prices, and inquiries and buying interest were weak. Overall spot transactions were weak. Traders saw slow shipments and limited willingness to quote, and spot trades were still mostly between traders.
Guangdong: Buying sentiment for refined zinc in the region was 1.90, and selling sentiment was 2.59. The zinc price center moved higher. Downstream buying interest was on the weak side. End-user enterprises with procurement needs all maintained just-in-time procurement, while enterprises with sufficient in-factory inventory showed low buying interest. High prices and weak demand continued to pressure spot premiums, which consolidated at lows.
Tianjin: Buying sentiment for refined zinc in the region was 1.78, and selling sentiment was 2.52. The futures market continued to consolidate at highs. Downstream buying interest was low, and trading was mainly among traders. Trader selling premiums were largely stable. Overall market transactions were average yesterday.
Ningbo: Traders in Ningbo offered prices in a passive manner. Market spot premiums were basically stable MoM, but SHFE zinc futures prices fluctuated at highs. Downstream enterprises remained fearful of high prices and stayed on the sidelines, and overall buying and purchasing interest was weak.
Inventory: On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,725 mt to 95,350 mt, down 1.78%. According to SMM, as of Monday this week (August 10), total zinc ingot inventory across the seven SMM locations was 267,400 mt, down 5,100 mt from August 3 and down 4,300 mt from August 6, with domestic inventory decreasing.
Zinc Price Forecast: Overnight LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. US July CPI data met expectations and core inflation remained mild, easing pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates in September. However, LME inventory continued its destocking, capital concentration was relatively high, and LME zinc still fluctuated at highs; LME zinc is expected to mainly consolidate at highs today. Overnight SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick with no upper shadow. Although macro sentiment improved somewhat, consumption in China remained weak, inventory pressure was relatively high, and SHFE zinc faced overhead resistance; SHFE zinc closed lower, while ore supply tightness and export expectations still provided support. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at highs today.

Data Source Disclaimer: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.