Metals broadly advanced, with lithium carbonate up nearly 3%, and LME and SHFE tin, coking coal and coke, COMEX and SHFE silver, etc. up over 1% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM News on August 12:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.93%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc rose 0.7%. SHFE tin rose 1.44%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%.

In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.97%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 3.69%.

Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar rose 0.37%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Stainless steel rose 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.17%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.75%.

Overseas base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin rose 1.14%. LME zinc rose 0.5%. Gains in LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel were all within 0.3%.

Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.69%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.22%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.09%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 1.44% to 1,585.5 points.

As of 11:46 on August 12, midday moves in some futures:

Spot and Fundamentals

Aluminum:Today, futures continued to surge, while the spot market in South China faced pressure from the “three mountains.” First, high absolute prices combined with high premiums in reality prompted suppliers to rush to sell more to cash out...

Macro front

China:

[PBOC reverse repo operations recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day.

[Guangdong power load hit a new high for the fourth time this year]At 13:47 on August 11, power load on the Guangdong power grid hit a new high for the fourth time this year, reaching 175.7 million kW, up 6.53% YoY. At present, Guangdong’s power supply is stable and orderly. On the same day, loads in cities including Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou within Guangdong Province hit record highs. ​​​(Guangdong Fabu)

[C919 domestically produced large aircraft officially began operating international commercial routes]Starting today (the 12th), Air China’s Beijing–Ulaanbaatar route to the capital of Mongolia will be operated by the domestically produced C919 large aircraft, marking the official launch of international scheduled commercial route operations for the domestically produced large aircraft. (CCTV News)

US dollar:

As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.87. The market awaits the upcoming US July CPI data, hoping to find clues on the Fed's rate path. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September is 52.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 48.0%. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 12.2%. (Jinshi Data APP)

The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said that the market will focus on the MoM change in the July inflation data to be released on Wednesday, as an increasing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation pulling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's new chair Warsh recently dismissed this framework of linking policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Fed's current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick added that the working group established by Warsh seems in part to help construct a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clear, the old framework appears to remain in operation.

Glenmede strategists said regarding the US July CPI that investors are anticipating another relatively mild inflation report, with headline CPI expected to rise 3.4% YoY, while core price pressures remain manageable. As US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices rose further in July, and the energy sector could once again bring pressure. However, the market reaction this time has been more stable, thanks to proactive measures and strategic reserve releases that maintained oil supply stability. The Fed has ample time before its next meeting to assess two inflation reports, giving it more time to evaluate whether energy pressures remain contained or begin to broaden, a distinction that could well influence future policy direction.

Other currencies:

According to foreign media reports, yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, and amid a lack of consensus on the yen's future direction, they are using derivatives to enhance trading flexibility. The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose for a second straight session on Wednesday, after the gauge had declined for five consecutive sessions. The reason was that traders were positioning ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The data was expected to influence the US Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US dollar's trajectory. Additionally, volatility in longer-dated options also edged up. The rise in volatility reflected a divergence in market views. For short tenors, the market remained concerned about the possibility of joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market, so USD/JPY put options continued to trade at a premium over call options, showing that investors were seeking protection against a sudden drop in the exchange rate. However, over longer tenors, investors continued to buy call options to bet on a renewed rally in USD/JPY. (Jin10 Data APP)

Data-wise:

Figures to be released today include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany's July CPI MoM final reading. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings call, MSCI will announce its August index review, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will release its monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release times for the monthly reports are to be determined, typically published around 18-21 Beijing Time).

Crude oil:

As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1% and Brent up 0.92%. Uncertainty over the US-Iran deal outlook supported prices.

Iran’s state television (IRIB), citing an advisor to the Supreme Leader, reported: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until relevant conditions are met. (Jin10 Data APP)

Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated on the 11th that Iran was repairing natural gas production facilities damaged by the war, with daily capacity planned to rebound to 95 million m³ by the end of September. Paknejad said that reconstruction work on four damaged gas processing facilities was progressing rapidly, contractors had commenced work, and completion was anticipated ahead of schedule, restoring pre-war capacity. Earlier reports indicated that Iran's daily natural gas production had decreased by about 230 million m³ since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP)

The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that, due to persistently severe restrictions on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the degree of global oil supply disruption was greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA projects that the 2026 Brent spot price will average $87/bbl, up from the prior forecast of $82/bbl; and that the Q3 2026 Brent average will be about $85/bbl, with prices in the coming months largely sustaining levels seen in the first week of August. EIA says its latest forecast assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not caused additional production halts, and severe shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into August . EIA expects that most Middle Eastern crude oil production will return close to pre-conflict average levels by early 2027. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist until the end of 2027, at a scale of around 600,000 barrels per day. The average price for 2027 is forecast at $69/barrel, up from $65/barrel previously. (Wallstreetcn)

Additionally, Russia has started importing gasoline from the distant Indian market, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused a severe domestic fuel supply shortage. According to shipping data provider Kpler, this marks the first time Russia has imported motor gasoline from a South Asian country. Kpler said the first gasoline cargo arrived on August 5, and more shipments may arrive in Russia in the future. These fuel volumes were shipped via a series of tankers linked to Russia, and were transshipped near Egyptian waters before heading to Russia. Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said, "The emergence of Indian gasoline supply is particularly noteworthy." He said these cargoes from India, along with continued gasoline imports from Belarus and other neighboring markets, highlight the severity of the current domestic gasoline supply-demand imbalance in Russia, and also reflect how declining refinery operating rates are reshaping traditional Russian oil product trade flows. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot Market at a Glance:

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