Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,901.5/mt, continuing the drifting higher trend from the previous trading day, with its center moving up again. The intraday high reached $1,909/mt, the highest in nearly two weeks. During the latter part of the session, LME lead mostly traded above $1,900/mt before finally settling at $1,903/mt, up 0.13%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,905 yuan/mt. Pressured by warrant inventory buildup, SHFE lead turned lower after the open to around 15,830 yuan/mt. Later, as bears increased position reduction, SHFE lead consolidated between 15,845-15,900 yuan/mt and eventually closed at 15,860 yuan/mt, down 0.28%. Open interest was 480.43 million lots, down 3,480 lots from the previous trading day. In recent sessions, open interest of the SHFE lead 2609 contract has been gradually shifting to the 2610 contract; the SHFE lead 2610 contract currently holds open interest of 67,587 lots, with attention turning to an upcoming switch of the most-traded contract.
On the macro front:
The Strait of Hormuz may remain difficult to "restart"; Iran says it will not open unless conditions are met, and the US military reportedly fired on vessels involved with Iran. Earlier, oil prices plunged intraday, and Pakistan said the US and Iran were "close to reaching some kind of arrangement." Could Wednesday's US CPI deliver a "dovish surprise"? Goldman Sachs says inflation may come in below consensus expectations, while HSBC is betting on "moderate" data. The Fed's mouthpiece: Even Warsh's "tough talk" can't beat the data; two inflation reports may decide the fate of a September rate hike.
:
In the spot lead market yesterday, SHFE lead rose sharply, and suppliers actively sold. Among them, electrolysis lead smelters lowered their EXW offers, with quotes from major producing areas at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price upon leaving the factory. In secondary lead, smelter losses gradually recovered, market supply increased relatively, and secondary refined lead offers saw widening discounts, quoted at discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. Downstream enterprises were dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment; some were cautious about buying at highs, while others made just-in-time purchases, leading to moderate spot order transactions.
Inventory: As of August 10, LME lead inventory stood at 420,300 mt, down 1,500 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 60,927 mt, up 3,874 mt from the prior week.
Today's lead price forecast:
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained volatile, with investors staying cautious and on the sidelines ahead of key US inflation data. On the lead fundamentals side, lead ingot inventory buildup before delivery proceeded as expected, limiting upside room for lead prices. However, maintenance at primary lead smelters provided moderate expectations of supply tightening. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs. It is also noteworthy that, as lead prices rise, losses in secondary lead are gradually recovering, and production cut plans at some smelters may change. Meanwhile, the discount on secondary lead is widening, with the price difference versus primary lead already exceeding 100 yuan. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of production trends at secondary lead enterprises on lead prices.
Data Source Statement: Other data beyond publicly available information are all based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed and derived by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
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