Overnight London and SHFE copper edged up, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts over Middle East tensions roiling the copper market [SMM copper morning comment]

SMM Aug 12 News: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,208/mt, touched a high of $14,218/mt amid early consolidation, then drifted lower throughout the session, dipping to $14,142/mt near the close, and finally settled at $14,153/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume stood at 15,700 lots, and open interest at 261,000 lots, up 2,675 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,200 yuan/mt, with the copper price center moving up to test 108,320 yuan/mt early on, then drifting lower to a low of 107,900 yuan/mt, and finally settling at 108,000 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume was 21,000 lots, and open interest 213,000 lots, down 1,714 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, Qatar said Oman-Iran negotiations have entered an advanced stage, and Pakistan said the US and Iran are close to reaching an arrangement; Trump accused Iran of lacking sincerity and threatened military action, US military helicopters fired on a cargo ship heading to Iran, and Houthi forces struck Saudi-related targets in Yemen while expressing willingness for conditional dialogue with Saudi Arabia. Persistent uncertainty in the Middle East continued to disrupt the market, keeping copper prices in consolidation. On the fundamentals side, supply side, shipments increased near delivery, with circulating supply becoming marginally loose, but high-quality copper and SX-EW copper remained tight, reflecting structural divergence; demand side, suppressed by the continued surge in copper prices, downstream users only made just-in-time purchases. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a narrow sideways-to-weaker trend today.