SMM August 11 news:
The ADP and non-farm payrolls data in the US fell significantly short of expectations, and the US labour market weakened, causing the market to lower its expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. After an earlier deep correction in the precious metals market, a certain amount of short positions had accumulated; when the market turned a corner, this triggered concentrated short covering. Meanwhile, gold ETFs saw fund inflows, and investment buying was active on China’s futures market. This round of gains was driven more by financial attributes and derivatives-related funds, while the physical side failed to provide a simultaneous boost. In addition, central banks around the world continued to allocate to gold assets, and the PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 21st consecutive month, building medium and long-term bottom support for gold prices. A confluence of factors pushed precious metals futures prices higher. As of around 13:27 on August 11, COMEX gold extended gains into a third straight session, up 0.89% at $4,459/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold futures extended gains for another session, up 1.887% to 961.86 yuan/g; COMEX silver extended gains into a third straight session, up 0.39% at $65.525/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver futures extended gains for the sixth straight session, up 3.08% to 16,069 yuan/kg; silver T+D extended gains for the sixth straight session, up 1.98% to 15,860 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures extended gains for a second session, up 0.59% to 437 yuan/g, and the most-traded palladium futures extended gains for the fifth straight session, up 1.92% to 331.05 yuan/g.
Currently, the market is focused on US July CPI data, and uncertainties remain for precious metals. With futures prices continuing to rise, what are institutions’ views on the outlook for precious metals?
Spot Market
Silver
On August 11, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 16,123.5 yuan/kg, up 4.63% from the previous trading day. The continuous rise in silver prices continued to suppress downstream industrial demand, with buyers mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The price spread narrowed today, traders lowered their offer prices, and some suppliers chose to sell at discounts to move inventory. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly concentrated between TD-5 and +5 yuan/kg. Reduced purchases by banking institutions weakened the floor support, and only some acceptance demand led to necessary deals, with the overall market leaning toward parity or a slight discount. In Shenzhen, some nationally standardized supplies were concentrated around slight discounts, with both buyers and sellers remaining cautious. Today, market premiums for the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were quoted at a discount of 65 to 55 yuan/kg.
Overall, precious metals drifted higher today, driven by bullish factors and buying. Spot market, after silver prices rose, selling pressure mounted, and transactions gradually shifted to discounts.
Platinum
On August 11, the average spot price of platinum was 432 yuan/g, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. Mainstream platinum quotations were at discounts of 3.5 yuan/g to 2.5 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, with a wide disparity in quotations. Downstream consumption remained relatively weak, dominated by just-in-time procurement. The discount on mainstream quotations was basically flat with yesterday. Due to consecutive futures gains, some unhedged goods were offered at lower prices in the market. Today, overall consumption in the platinum spot market remained sluggish.
Voices
Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions are more optimistic, while others are more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows:
Chaos Tiancheng Futures believes: Precious metals moved in tandem with US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and oil prices on Monday, reflecting their gradual pricing in of long-term drivers such as debt credit risk, while the increasing possibility of "stagflation" further supported the market. The long-term driver, US Treasury credit, showed some intensification, as the US debt scale further exceeded $40 trillion last week and the US July deficit rate deteriorated, with the twin worries over debt and deficit driving precious metals higher. This week, accompanied by the re-emergence of the "commodity currency logic," precious metals again showed relative strength, while US Treasuries saw some "selling" – the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 4.7%, and precious metals also moved higher in tandem with Treasury yields. From the perspective of capital and fundamental resonance, market positioning sentiment and central bank gold purchases provided bottom support. The underlying logic of global central banks' continuous normalization of gold purchases remained unchanged. The PBOC increased gold holdings for 21 consecutive months, with monthly purchases of about 20 mt, creating sentiment resonance in the market. "Stagflation logic" rose further, boosting precious metals. Last week, US non-farm payrolls data showed negative growth, and the AI narrative still faced negative impacts. Monday's news showed Nvidia collaborating with Wall Street giants to advance an AI infrastructure plan worth $500 billion. This further triggered market interpretation of the AI logic and concerns over debt risks, causing US stocks to decline, and economic expectations decreased compared with earlier periods. The geopolitical situation remained volatile. Iran published a "preliminary plan for the management of the Strait of Hormuz" with very strict conditions, restricting US and Israeli vessels, imposing transport limits on some countries, and possible penalties for rule violations. The rebound in oil prices drove inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields rebounded, and inflation risks increased. Last week, precious metals saw a sharp rebound in sentiment following a period of significant suppression, with the long-term logic of drifting higher continuing on Monday. Going forward, attention should be paid to USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuations; geopolitical developments and whether this week's US CPI data show breakout momentum to the upside. Relatively speaking, gold’s support is more stable than silver’s, while silver exhibits greater elasticity.
Scott Rubner, strategist at Citadel Securities, recommended for the first time in 2026 that investors allocate to structural gold positions, and said the precious metals market is forming “one of the most attractive rally opportunities in months.” Rubner believes that gold and silver are seeing multiple tailwinds at the same time, including a shift in Fed policy expectations, continued central bank gold purchases, quantitative funds remaining in a net short position, bullish signals from the options market, and a possible return of retail funds previously drawn to the AI trading frenzy. In his view, a rare confluence of multiple factors is taking shape, and the precious metals market may enter a new phase of upside.
UBS: expects gold prices to rise to $5,000/oz in H1 2027. Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term.
Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that improving prospects for peace in the Middle East lowered market inflation expectations, driving gold prices further higher from the weeks-long consolidation range above $4,000. The US Labor Department will release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect the bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and push gold back to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some short-term fluctuations, but the price action has already signaled the direction, and gold appears to want to move higher.”
World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat for the month. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. However, this does not by itself mean gold will rally significantly; it depends on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, Asian investor demand, and how central banks respond.
Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices remains, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation in the (Middle East) situation, gold prices could continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP)
A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then quickly fell, but the bank believes gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical rifts under deglobalization that are hard to heal, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we believe that the current gold price decline is only a temporary correction within a bull market. The current pullback magnitude has approached historical extremes, and the area around $4,000/oz is likely the bottom of this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppressing to boosting, the US Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and combined with the surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year.
Everbright Futures' outlook for August: Gold's short-term trend depends on the evolution of the US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or spills over and expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform; however, if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and stage a rebound-repair trend, at which point if both domestic and external financial markets show a synchronous recovery, this can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that, supported by central banks' rigid buying and allocation demand, even if there is another pullback, the room for decline will be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline the medium-term policy framework, and before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may present a bottom-solidifying and sentiment-repair phase, and we are cautiously optimistic. The core risk lies in the US-Iran conflict again causing oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounding significantly beyond expectations, and the rising probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict.
A Reuters survey shows that after gold prices pulled back sharply from the record high in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 is $4,509 per ounce. This figure is lower than $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 is $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in the second quarter, as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations, prices suffered a sharp pullback, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP)
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and Treasury yields. Oil prices slumped sharply on Monday, easing inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came on the heels of a pause in US-Iran hostilities. The decline in oil also weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and upcoming US inflation data for further cues on the rate outlook. If yields remain suppressed, gold should continue to find support near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term.
Commerzbank cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. It now sees platinum at $2,000 per troy ounce at the end of the year, down from an earlier forecast of $2,100.
Citi said its base case shows India’s gold imports will stay sluggish in the third quarter, even though the third quarter is historically a seasonal stockpiling peak. The reasons are ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts that are curbing fresh import demand. Nonetheless, Citi kept its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift to a less hawkish Fed; numerous short-term risks could still cause gold to test lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed.
Analysts at ANZ Research said in a note that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are underpinning the gold market. They added that while prices face short-term headwinds from Fed tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, gold investment positioning looks thin after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, suggesting further downside could be limited. High interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhith Finance)
Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from tighter Fed expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimates central banks bought 81 mt in May, with a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. “We believe the trend of central banks adding to gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks,” Goldman analysts said. The bank forecasts monthly central bank purchases will average 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jinshi Data APP)
Kim Soojin, an analyst at MUFG, said: “Recent price action suggests markets are placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand.”"This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jin10 Data APP)
Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild the gold positions it reduced earlier this year at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain robust. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to rebuild our gold position; the question is only about timing.” He said that from January to February this year he reduced his gold allocation to neutral, at a time when gold's multi-year bull market suddenly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. Only if “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down” would the case for returning to a bull market be undermined, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases — a key driver of the previous bull market — will continue to support gold prices.
A research report from Guoxin Securities shows: After a deep pullback in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of a bottom, awaiting only event catalysts to drive a rally. It suggests building positions in tranches on dips near $4,000 and avoiding chasing highs. Core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historical lows, offering a notable margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, valuations of gold mining companies have dropped significantly from the start of the year to low levels, providing high odds. Going forward, apart from a valuation repair rally, there is potential to also capture the price elasticity from rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity is a significant advantage. Gold stocks act as an amplifier of gold prices — mining costs are rigid, so higher gold prices translate directly into profit growth, and earnings elasticity far exceeds the gold price increase itself.
A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: Over the medium term, the market's core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → prolonged period of high Fed rates → repeated flare-ups of rate hike expectations within the year.” Gold’s pricing anchor remains dominated by real US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall market is likely to continue consolidating on a subdued note. Currently, Middle East ceasefire negotiations are mired in repeated wrangling, with the two sides holding significant differences on core demands such as withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility verification mechanisms, and control over the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane as well as transit fee rules. The recurrent nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to unsettle global crude oil supply expectations, and upside risks to energy prices could further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the Fed’s tightening stance. Meanwhile, the concurrent rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields is creating a double drag, and with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest-rate pricing logic, upside room for gold prices is likely to remain constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the Fed's interest rate decision to be released on July 30; 3) the US PCE for June to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold's bullish logic has not weakened but rather strengthened amid shifts in global macro and geopolitical landscapes. 1) Constraints from US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-power rivalry are undermining the stability of the dollar's credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into a key asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks from the restructuring of the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks are still providing solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC's sustained purchases further validate the official sector's long-term allocation demand. 3) The late stage of the US economic cycle faces multiple constraints from high interest rates, credit contraction, and slowing growth. Looking ahead, whether the Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold holds strong long-term allocation value: the former supports a decline in real interest rates, while the latter reinforces demand for safe-haven and credit-risk hedging. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window over the medium and long term, with its price center expected to continue moving higher amid the reshaping of global macro and geopolitical landscapes.
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