[SMM Analysis] Typhoon Hit China's July Iron Ore Imports, Despite Rising Global Shipments

According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 108.085 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% MoM but up 3.50% YoY. Cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates from January to July reached 736.841 million mt, up 5.9% YoY.

Reviewing July, global iron ore shipments gradually pulled back after the Q1 quarter-end push, only recovering at the month-end. Customs data showed that China’s iron ore and concentrates imports in July stood at 108.085 million mt, edging down 4.08% MoM. SMM statistics indicated that global shipments for the month totaled 156.60 million mt, up 14.18% MoM, with notable growth from both Australia and Brazil. Affected by typhoon weather, the pace of China’s port arrivals fluctuated significantly more than shipments, showing a low-then-high pattern over the month, with total arrivals rising 17.04% MoM to 134.16 million mt. The phased increases in July shipments and arrivals were more attributable to short-term factors such as statistical periods and weather disruptions rather than growth in supply capability. The first week of July’s statistical period (June 27–July 3) included one more week compared with June, and the concentrated replenishment of arrivals at month-end caused by weather conditions also contributed to this growth.

Looking ahead to August, Brazil enters its peak shipping season in Q3, while Australian shipments, after a relatively low start in the new fiscal year, will gradually recover month by month, providing a positive boost to August arrivals from mainstream mines. However, West Africa remains in the rainy season, and a substantial rebound in non-mainstream shipments will have to wait until Q4. At the same time, frequent typhoon weather recently is expected to disrupt the pace of arrivals, potentially leading to a short-term decline. On the demand side, weather factors continue to suppress downstream operating rates, which in turn will persistently dampen iron ore demand. In addition, the August statistical period will be one week shorter than July on a MoM basis. Therefore, iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports in August are expected to decline MoM from July.