On August 6, SMM published market news based on exclusive information that a major nickel mine was expected to receive an additional RKAB quota of around 25 million wmt.
Following SMM’s market news, nickel prices reacted quickly and reversed from intraday gains to losses. The news weakened the market’s previous expectation that Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy would remain tightly constrained, leading to softer short-term sentiment in nickel prices. In the near term, nickel prices may remain under pressure, while the market will continue to monitor whether other mining companies receive supplementary RKAB approvals and the scale of any additional quota releases.
On August 7, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) denied that the additional 25 million wmt production quota had been approved. However, SMM believes the latest clarification from ESDM does not necessarily mean that RKAB revisions will not happen. In Indonesia’s RKAB approval process, market participants may sometimes see early signs or system notifications of the quota before final official approval document is formally released. Therefore, there may be a time gap between market circulation, system-level indication, internal review progress, and the release of the final official approval document. In this context, ESDM’s denial may mainly reflect that the final official approval had not yet been issued or publicly confirmed at the time of the statement.
From SMM’s market understanding, expectations of a quota increase for the major nickel mine had already been widely discussed among miners, traders, and smelters since the first week of August. This suggests that the market had already paid close attention to the possibility of further RKAB revision. However, the final result still depends on the government’s approval process and official documentation.
More broadly, RKAB revision remains a key variable for Indonesia’s nickel ore market in H2 2026. Any additional RKAB volume should not be interpreted as a broad-based relaxation of Indonesia’s nickel ore supply policy. Instead, it is more likely to be assessed on a case-by-case basis, depending on downstream demand, smelter raw material requirements, mine compliance, production capability, and the government’s intention to maintain supply-demand balance.
This assessment is also consistent with Bahlil Lahadalia’s recent remarks. Bahlil previously mentioned that RKAB relaxation would prioritize companies with higher royalty contributions. He also indicated that production quota adjustments through RKAB revisions would be carried out in a measured manner, while the government would avoid directly disclosing the exact revised quota volume to prevent unnecessary commodity price volatility. This further supports SMM’s view that RKAB revisions remain possible, but the approval process is likely to be selective and policy-driven rather than a broad-based quota relaxation.
From SMM’s perspective, there are two possible scenarios ahead. First, the RKAB revision could be approved in a volume sufficient to cover the raw material requirements of associated smelters, which would help ease local ore tightness and improve feedstock security for downstream operations. Second, the approval may still be delayed, adjusted, or issued at a lower volume than market expectations, depending on the government’s final review.
Therefore, SMM believes the market should continue to monitor further updates on RKAB revisions. Considering that the news has already been widely heard by miners, traders, and smelters, and that the need to secure smelter feedstock remains real, the probability of further RKAB revision remains relatively high. However, the timing and final approved volume still depend on ESDM’s official approval pace and final documentation. Until the official approval document is released, the market should treat the 25 million wmt figure as a potential revision expectation rather than a confirmed final quota.
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