SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, August 10, 2026
Market Review: Over the past week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract largely consolidated at highs with a slightly strong bias, as price action was influenced by intertwined factors including macro liquidity expectations, geopolitical games, and supply-demand fundamentals. Early in the week, the price center steadily moved higher and briefly shot up, swinging broadly in the range of 410,000 yuan/mt to 440,000 yuan/mt.
Market Forecast:
On the international macro front last week, US economic data presented a mixed picture. The ISM manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, reinforcing expectations for a September rate hike, but the ADP employment data came in far below expectations, causing the probability of a hike to swing back sharply. The market engaged in violent swings between "strong data" and "weak employment" signals. The US dollar index pulled back below 100, providing short-term upward momentum for tin prices, while profit-taking by bulls ahead of the non-farm payrolls data triggered a retreat from highs. LME tin retreated after a rapid rise and then consolidated at highs. In China, the supply-demand imbalance in the tin market continued to deepen, presenting a picture of "constrained supply elasticity and diverging demand structure."
Supply side, ore disruptions remained unresolved. Yinman Mining suspended all mining, processing, and tailings operations due to an accident, with the duration of the shutdown uncertain, creating an additional hard supply cut to domestic ore. The production cap in Myanmar's Wa State region was locked at 50% of pre-ban levels, with a full production resumption postponed to 2027; as the rainy season drew to a close, a significant increase in ore output was unlikely. Supply risks in the DRC and Peru also persisted, while only a slight recovery in Indonesian exports provided a weak offset. As a result, Yunnan tin concentrate TCs remained at historical lows, smelting operating rates stayed sluggish, and the transmission chain from ore tightness to refined metal tightness was not broken. Demand side, the traditional solder and alloy sectors were still in the off-season. Spot trading was sluggish at high futures prices, and downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, showing willingness to restock at fixed prices only when prices pulled back to lower ranges. However, emerging sectors—represented by AI servers, advanced packaging, and the upcoming new-device stockpiling demand—constituted important marginal growth and served as the core amplifier for "low tonnage, high elasticity." Recently, global tin exchange inventories remained at low levels, continuing to provide solid support for prices.
Overall, the core support for current tin prices lies in low inventories and the hard supply gap in ore. However, the repeated repricing of the rate-hike path by macro sentiment dominates the short-term pace. It is expected that SHFE tin will continue to swing broadly at highs this week. The eventual release of the non-farm payrolls data will be the key switch determining overseas macro sentiment and September rate-hike expectations. Investors should be alert to wild swings triggered by data shocks and could, when prices pull back to the psychological price levels for downstream restocking, pay attention to staged support opportunities against the backdrop of low inventories.
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