Nonfarm and geopolitical multiple disturbances, domestic and overseas copper shot up and then pulled back under pressure [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM August 10: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,141/mt, shot up in early session to a high of $14,173/mt amid wild swings, then its center dropped sharply, dipping near the close to $14,006/mt, finally settling at $14,022/mt, down 0.5%, with trading volume at 19,800 lots and open interest at 258,000 lots, up 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, showing bears added positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper September 2609 contract opened at 108,010 yuan/mt, initially climbed to 108,140 yuan/mt, then its center drifted lower, near the close touching a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, finally settling at 107,160 yuan/mt, down 0.8%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 215,000 lots, down 6,056 lots from the previous trading day, showing bulls cut positions. On the macro front, US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, sending mixed employment signals. Trump initiated proceedings to remove Fed Governor Cook, and said rates are not solely decided by Warsh; geopolitically, Trump postponed military action against Iran, but Iran said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Weakening nonfarm payrolls put the US dollar under pressure, but the Fed independence controversy and Middle East uncertainty sent copper prices shooting up before pulling back. Fundamentally, the supply of available spot cargoes hasn't eased significantly yet, but the approaching delivery and position rollover demand are expected to increase the circulation of lower-priced cargoes, with overall tightness maintained. Demand side, constrained by the off-season and elevated copper prices, downstream users only made just-in-time procurement. Taking all into account, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.