NBS: July CPI Up 0.5% YoY, PPI Up 3.5% YoY

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, affected by imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% MoM and rose by 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY. Overall, CPI maintained a mild increase. Demand in some domestic industries increased, but affected by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.7% MoM and rose by 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, China's producer prices rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. For the January–July period, the PPI rose 1.8% YoY and industrial producer purchase prices rose 2.8% YoY. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department at the NBS, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for July 2026.

July 2026 Consumer Prices Rose 0.5% YoY

In July 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 0.5%, rural CPI rose 0.4%; food prices fell 1.5%, non-food prices rose 0.9%; consumer goods prices rose 0.2%, and service prices rose 0.7%. For the January–July period, the national CPI rose 0.9% YoY on average.

In July, the national CPI fell 0.1% MoM. Specifically, urban CPI fell 0.1%, rural CPI fell 0.2%; food prices remained flat, non-food prices fell 0.1%; consumer goods prices fell 0.6%, while service prices rose 0.4%.

1. YoY Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services

In July, prices for food, tobacco, alcohol, and dining out categories fell 0.8% YoY, pulling the CPI down by about 0.22 percentage points. Among food items, livestock meat prices fell 6.0%, pulling the CPI down by about 0.25 percentage points, of which pork prices fell 13.3%; dairy prices fell 1.5%, pulling the CPI down by about 0.02 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell 1.1%, pulling the CPI down by about 0.02 percentage points; egg prices rose 14.4%, pushing the CPI up by about 0.07 percentage points.

Prices of the other seven categories recorded six increases and one decline YoY. Specifically, prices of other supplies and services and healthcare rose 5.8% and 2.9%, respectively; clothing and education, culture and recreation prices rose 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively; household goods and services and transportation and communication prices rose 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively; while residential prices fell 0.3%.

II. MoM Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services

In July, prices for the food, tobacco, alcohol, and dining-out category remained unchanged MoM. Within food items, livestock meat prices rose 1.9%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to CPI growth, with pork prices rising 4.1%; fresh vegetable prices rose 1.3%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to CPI growth; fresh fruit prices fell 3.8%, pulling down CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points; and egg prices fell 1.7%, pulling down CPI by approximately 0.01 percentage points.

For the other seven major categories, three saw MoM increases, two were unchanged, and two saw decreases. Specifically, prices for education, culture, and entertainment; healthcare; and household goods and services rose by 1.0%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively; prices for housing and other goods and services were both unchanged; and prices for transportation and communication and clothing fell by 2.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

In July 2026, Industrial Producer EXW Prices Rose 3.5% YoY

In July 2026, national industrial producer EXW prices rose 3.5% YoY but fell 0.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 5.5% YoY but fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July, on average, industrial producer EXW prices were up 1.8% versus the same period last year, and purchase prices rose 2.8%.

I. YoY Changes in Industrial Producer Prices

In July, within industrial producer EXW prices, producer goods prices rose 4.8% YoY, contributing approximately 3.72 percentage points to the overall increase in industrial producer EXW prices. Specifically, extractive industry prices rose 16.4%, raw material industry prices rose 6.1%, and processing industry prices rose 3.1%. Consumer goods prices fell 0.8%, pulling down industrial producer EXW prices by approximately 0.17 percentage points. Within this, food prices fell 2.1%, clothing prices fell 1.1%, general daily necessities prices fell 1.0%, and durable consumer goods prices rose 0.4%.

In industrial producer purchase prices, non-ferrous metal materials and wires prices rose 19.0%, fuel and power and chemical raw material prices both rose 9.3%, textile raw material prices rose 3.2%, and ferrous metal material prices rose 1.4%; building materials and non-metallic mineral product prices fell 4.1%, and agricultural and sideline product prices fell 0.8%.

II. MoM Changes in Industrial Producer Prices 

In July, within industrial producer EXW prices, producer goods prices fell 0.9% MoM, pulling down overall industrial producer EXW prices by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Of which, mining industry prices fell 0.2%, raw material industry prices fell 2.4%, and processing industry prices fell 0.1%. Consumer goods prices dropped 0.1%, pulling the overall industrial producer EXW price level down by about 0.01 percentage points. Among them, both food and durable consumer goods prices were flat, clothing prices fell 0.3%, and general daily necessities prices fell 0.2%.

Among industrial producer purchase prices, prices of fuel and power and chemical raw materials both fell 2.6%, non-ferrous metal materials and wires prices fell 1.4%, ferrous metal materials and textile raw materials prices both fell 0.2%, building materials and non-metallic categories prices fell 0.1%; agricultural and sideline product prices rose 0.5%.

In July 2026, CPI Maintained Mild Growth, PPI YoY Growth Pulled Back Somewhat

— by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician at the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interpreting the July 2026 CPI and PPI Data

In July, due to imported international factors, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY; the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, with CPI overall maintaining mild growth. Domestic demand increased in some sectors, but due to imported and seasonal factors, the industrial producer EXW price index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with growth pulling back by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

1. CPI MoM Decline Narrowed, YoY Growth Remained Mild

On a MoM basis, the national CPI fell 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. International market price fluctuations led to a 10.7% drop in domestic gasoline prices, with the decline widening by 5.8 percentage points from the previous month, pushing the MoM CPI down by about 0.35 percentage points. Food prices were flat from the previous month, 0.6 percentage points below the seasonal level. Within food, fresh vegetable prices rose 1.3% and egg prices fell 2.1%, both significantly below seasonal levels; as seasonal fruits entered the market in large quantities with ample supply, fresh fruit prices fell 3.8%, pushing the MoM CPI down by about 0.07 percentage points. The effects of comprehensive hog production capacity control policies became evident, and coupled with frequent extreme weather such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions, which pushed up transportation costs, pork prices turned from a 0.8% decline in the previous month to a 4.1% increase, pushing the MoM CPI up by about 0.07 percentage points. Driven by artificial intelligence, consumer electronics underwent iterative upgrades, boosting related product demand and prices. Tablet computers, computers, and mobile phones saw price increases of 11.3%, 5.5%, and 1.0%, respectively, collectively pushing the MoM CPI up by about 0.03 percentage points. Service prices shifted from unchanged last month to a 0.4% increase, contributing about 0.21 percentage points to the MoM rise in CPI. Within services, driven by increased summer travel demand, travel agency fees, hotel accommodation, airfares, and vehicle rental prices rose 7.2%, 6.5%, 4.2%, and 3.6%, respectively, collectively contributing about 0.1 percentage points to the MoM rise in CPI. Policy-driven price adjustments in some regions continued to advance, with medical service prices up 1.1%, contributing about 0.07 percentage points to the MoM rise in CPI.

On a YoY basis, the national CPI rose 0.5%, maintaining a mild increase. The YoY CPI inflation rate pulled back 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the pullback in gasoline price gains. Gasoline prices rose 1.0%, with the increase pulling back 16 percentage points from the previous month, reducing its upward impact on CPI by about 0.45 percentage points compared to last month, which drove the energy price gain down to 0.6%. Prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 1.5%, with the increase pulling back 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.37 percentage points to the YoY CPI rise. Among these, gold jewelry, personal care products, and household appliances prices rose 24.6%, 1.7%, and 0.2%, respectively, with all increases pulling back, collectively contributing about 0.13 percentage points to the YoY CPI rise; computer, tablet, and mobile phone prices rose 17.4%, 17.2%, and 8.5%, respectively, with all increases expanding, collectively contributing about 0.14 percentage points. Service prices rose 0.7%, with the increase pulling back 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.36 percentage points to the YoY CPI rise. Within services, medical service prices rose 4.3%, with the increase expanding 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.28 percentage points; domestic services, dining out, and education services prices rose 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.6%, respectively, with increases generally stable. Food prices fell 1.5%, with the decline narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, dragging the YoY CPI down by about 0.25 percentage points. Within food, pork prices fell 13.3%, with the decline narrowing 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, dragging the YoY CPI down by about 0.25 percentage points; price declines for fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, grains, edible oils, and dairy products ranged from 0.3% to 1.5%; egg prices rose 17.8%, with the increase pulling back 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; mutton, beef, and poultry prices rose between 1.6% and 6.2%.

II. PPI Fell MoM, with YoY Increase Pulling Back

On a MoM basis, the national PPI fell 0.7%, with the decline widening 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Key features of the MoM PPI movements this month: First, imported factors dragged down prices in related domestic industries. Prices of oil extraction, refined petroleum product manufacturing, and organic chemical raw material manufacturing fell by 11.8%, 8.4%, and 4.2%, respectively. Prices of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing decreased by 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively. These five industries together contributed about 0.65 ppt to the MoM PPI decline. Second, seasonal factors led to price decreases in some industries. In July, high temperatures, heavy rain, and typhoons were frequent, slowing the progress of construction projects. Prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and non-metallic mineral products fell by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. With increased hydropower and wind power generation, their prices dropped by 10.3% and 3.9%, respectively. These four industries combined contributed about 0.11 ppt to the MoM PPI decline. Third, industrial transformation and upgrading, along with consumption quality improvement and expansion, drove up demand and prices in some sectors. New growth drivers expanded and strengthened, with sectors such as AI, high-end equipment, and new materials flourishing. Prices of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing, carbon-based new materials, and ship and related equipment manufacturing rose by 2.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3%, respectively. Consumption of high-quality goods grew relatively fast, with prices of smart home consumer devices and skincare cosmetics manufacturing up by 3.4% and 0.7%.

On a YoY basis, national PPI rose 3.5%, with the growth rate pulling back by 0.6 ppt from the previous month. By industry, among the major sectors with price increases, oil and natural gas extraction, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing rose by 3.2%, 8.2%, and 9.1%, respectively. Non-ferrous metal mining and dressing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were up 22.6% and 20.2%, while ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing increased 2.7%. All saw their growth rates pull back from the previous month. Together, these six industries contributed about 2.55 ppt to the YoY PPI increase. Coal mining and washing rose 27.1%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased 5.7%, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 4.4%, with growth rates all widening from the previous month. These three industries combined added about 1.53 ppt to the YoY PPI increase. The upward pull from the above nine industries on PPI was 0.56 ppt less than the previous month. The five industries with the largest downward pull on prices were: electric power and heat production and supply, automobile manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and alcoholic beverages and refined tea manufacturing. Their YoY declines ranged from 2.3% to 5.7%, together contributing about 0.76 ppt to the YoY PPI decline, 0.05 ppt less than the previous month.